Krakow, 21/02/2014 (Agence Europe) - On the sidelines of a meeting in Krakow on Thursday 20 and Friday 21 February, several members of the EPP Group played down recent opinion polls putting the S&D Group ahead of the EPP in the run-up to May's European elections. On Wednesday evening, a new estimate published by PollWatch 2014, put the S&D ahead of the EPP - with 221 S&D MEPs (compared with the current 194) and 202 EPP MEPs (compared with the current 275).
The ALDE Group are forecast to drop from 85 to 64 seats, and the Greens from 58 to 44. What is more, the European Greens could also be overtaken by Alexis Tsirpas' Radical Left, which would increase from 35 to 56 MEPs. In addition, the extreme Right could be in a position to form a group at the European Parliament. The National Front (FN) in France, Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) in the Netherlands, the FPÖ in Austria, the Vlaams Belang in Belgium, the Lega Nord in Italy and the Sweden Democrats (SD) could garner 38 MEPs. They would just be missing one other extreme Right party. Eurosceptics could make up 29% of the seats, PollWatch points out.
In the view of Arnaud Danjean (EPP, France), who spoke in Krakow on Thursday about Ukraine, “one needs to be very wary” with these opinion polls. “It's all just speculation. Two weeks ago, it was the EPP that was in the lead” - as it was in France. “Two months ago, the FN was ahead of us and now the UMP is in the lead”, he said, speaking about France. In Danjean's opinion, “it is too early to know. The electoral campaign hasn't even started!”
In the view of other sources inside the EPP Group, this new poll (the second that puts the Socialists ahead of the Conservatives) should not be considered as more important than the others. “It is clear that the trend is down for our group and up for the Socialists”, says one German MEP, although he believes that the PollWatch poll is a little biased. “Some national parties have been put in the Non-attached and not on our side”, says another source from a Southern member state rather angrily, believing that this poll is “partial”.
The results of the elections will, in any event, influence the choice of president for the European Commission. Martin Schulz (S&D, Germany), who would be in a strong position given the S&D's predicted gain in seats, could be in the running. On the EPP side, suspense continues between Jean-Claude Juncker (Luxembourg), who seems to be the favourite and the outsider Michel Barnier (France), who also has “a real chance” in the view of his French UMP party's troops, Danjean says. Jean-Pierre Audy (UMP, France) shares Danjean's opinion and is sure that Barnier has strong support. Barnier “is extremely mature technically and politically to take on this difficult role”, Audy says.
Barnier's formal application will “come very soon”, says Audy, who admits that the timing of submitting the applications is part “of this game of liar's poker” that is currently going on around the real and assumed EPP candidates. There will only be one winner at the EPP congress in Dublin on 7 March, however. It will then be up to the heads of state and government to decide if they want a second round, perhaps even pulling the name of Christine Lagarde out of the hat. Lagarde is very much supported by the British press as successor to European Commission President José Manuel Barroso.
In Danjean's view, once the election is over it “would be very risky for the Council not to draw conclusions from the ballot and its results. Co-decision needs to be respected” and although a European Parliament candidate should not be imposed on the 28 EU member states, “this issue needs to be handled harmoniously between the two institutions”. (SP/transl.fl)