United Nations confirms recovery in world economic growth. Given the persistent signs of improvement, is reasonable to assume that global economic growth will increase over the next two years, according to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014 (WESP) report, published on 21 January. Experts expect the global economy to grow at a pace of 3.0% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015, compared with an estimated growth of 2.1% for 2013. The world economy experienced subdued growth for a second year in 2013, but some improvements in the last quarter have led to the UN's more positive forecast. The euro area has finally ended a protracted recession. Growth in the United States strengthened somewhat. A few large emerging economies, including China and India, managed to backstop the deceleration they experienced in the past two years and veered upwards moderately. These factors point to increasing global growth. According to the WESP, inflation will remain tame worldwide, but the employment situation will continue to be challenging. While growth in international trade flows is expected to pick up moderately to 4.7%in 2014, the prices of most primary commodities are projected to be flat, although any unexpected supply-side shocks, including geo-political tensions, could push some of these prices higher. The report warns that international capital flows to emerging economies are expected to become more volatile. Regional specificities:

Developed countries: 1) United States: fiscal tightening and a series of political gridlocks over budgetary issues weighed heavily on growth; however, quantitative monetary easing boosted equity prices. The U.S. labour market and housing sector continued to recover. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the U.S. is expected to increase by 2.5% in 2014; 2) Western Europe: the region emerged from recession in 2013, but growth prospects remain weak, as fiscal austerity will continue and the unemployment rates remain elevated. GDP in Western Europe is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2014; 3) Japan has been boosted by a set of expansionary policy packages, but the effects of forthcoming structural reforms remain uncertain and an anticipated increase in Japan's consumption tax rate is expected to curb growth. GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5% in 2014. Developing countries and economies in transition: 1) Brazil: growth in Brazil has been hampered by weak external demand, volatility in international capital flows and tightening monetary policy, but growth is expected to rebound to 3% in 2014; 2) China: a slowdown in China has been stabilised and growth is expected to maintain at a pace of about 7.5% in the next few years; 3) India experienced its lowest growth in two decades, along with large current account and government budget deficits plus high inflation, but growth is forecast to improve to above 5% in 2014; 4) Russian Federation: growth weakened further in 2013, as industrial output and investment faltered, and is expected to recover modestly to 2.9% in 2014; 5) Africa: growth prospects in Africa remain relatively robust; after an estimated growth of 4.0% in 2013, GDP is projected to expand by 4.7% in 2014. The report emphasised the dependence of Africa's growth on investment in infrastructure, trade and investment ties with emerging economies, and improvements in economic governance and management. (IL/transl.fl)