Brussels, 15/11/2013 (Agence Europe) - A little over one month after proposing to prepare a scoreboard of social and employment trends to be included for reference in the European Semester process, the European Commission presented it on Wednesday 13 November, but did not hesitate to point out that there were worrying inconsistencies. A quick look at the five indicators picks out one particular factor: the disparity in socio-economic terms continued to grow until 2012 between the eurozone and Greece, where this was more alarming than for any other state.
The scoreboard finally seems to be the only tangible result of the long reflection on what should be the Economic and Monetary Union's (EMU) social dimension. The scoreboard still remains a project, which means that its content is still liable to change, but there is tacit consensus regarding its composition and its role. It is made up of five indicators: the unemployment rate (15-74 age group); the NEET rate in conjunction with the youth unemployment rate (15-24 age group); real gross household disposable income; the at-risk-of-poverty rate (15-64 age group); and income inequalities (ratio S80/S20). Other indicators could, however, be added in the future. That at least is the idea mooted today by the European Parliament (see EUROPE 10957).
The current objective is to include this scoreboard in the European Semester process for 2014 in order to have “greater visibility and make it easier to identify major employment and social trends that may affect the good functioning of the EMU”. The Commission thus presented it within the draft joint report on employment, as part of its latest annual review on growth (see EUROPE 10962). The general feeling comes as no surprise as it has already been expressed on many occasions by the Commission - that the gap between the north and the heart of the eurozone and its periphery (south) is growing.
Today, the European Commission suggests resorting to three dimensions in order to be able to interpret the scoreboard, identify major trends and, finally, respond in time. It is thus mainly a matter of looking at: 1) the historical evolution of indicators for each country; 2) the disparity between one country and the eurozone and EU averages; and, logically, 3) the evolution over two consecutive years of that disparity. With these criteria in mind, Greece stands out today for having all five indicators in the red. It is closely followed by Italy and Spain, which are far from their European neighbours in all areas, except for general unemployment (the first indicator) and the indicator of inequality respectively. Cyprus and Portugal follow closely behind. The Commission has still not said what it means when it speaks of a “response” to such worrying trends. (JK/transl.jl)