Brussels, 06/11/2012 (Agence Europe) - On Tuesday 6 November, a senior EU official expressed his pessimism with regard to the situation in Syria. “There is no reason to hope. We are holding on to the hopes of the special envoy (Lakhdar Brahimi) to relaunch the efforts for a diplomatic initiative. We are persuaded that it's possible but we need resolve from both sides, which we don't have”, he said to a small group of journalists. Saying that no solution is forthcoming from the United Nations Security Council either, the senior official added that “we can't see any light at the end of the tunnel”. He also criticised the increase in the number of deaths, which is over 150 per day - in other words, more than 35,000 since the beginning of the conflict. “We are accelerating the rate incredibly (…) with winter the situation is going to get worse and the fighting will continue”, he said, highlighting that according to the UN, in a few months' time, the refugees will increase from 350,000 to 700,000 and the displaced people from 1 million to 2.5 million.
The senior official was no more optimistic on the union of the opposition, which is what the international community wants. Recalling that the opposition is currently meeting in Doha to try to constitute a “sort of new Syrian national initiative” and to unite, he said that “all parties of the opposition are fighting amongst themselves. All the shades of difference exist”. He added that trying to create a political solution to the Syrian crisis will only make sense if the opposition is united. “If we strengthen the opposition, the support for the regime will do the same and we will go deeper into the horror”, he warned.
And once the opposition is united, will transition need to be organised again? Russia, China and Iran do not want the departure of Bashar al-Assad as a pre-condition to the dialogue for transition, while the Americans, the French, the Germans and the British say that it is not possible to hold discussions without him having left power. British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Tuesday 6 November that if Bashar al-Assad wants to leave “he could leave, that could be arranged”. He added that he would not, however, offer him an exit plan to the United Kingdom.
The senior official also regretted that the compromise found in Geneva on a transition in Syria (see EUROPE 10646) and on which Brahimi could lean, had “disappeared in the shifting sands”. It is “either a misunderstanding, or bad faith, or a bad interpretation”, he said (our translation throughout).
The Syrian issue will be tackled at the Arab League-EU summit in Egypt on 13 November. (CG/transl.fl)