Brussels, 13/07/2012 (Agence Europe) - World agricultural production will have to increase by 60% by 2050 in order to respond to the growing demand for food, the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations) and OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) warn in a report published on Wednesday 11 July. Volatility in the price of cereals will remain on the agenda.
“Agricultural production needs to increase by 60% over the next 40 years to meet the rising demand for food”, the FAO and OECD write in their agricultural outlook for 2012-2021. This means producing 1 billion more tonnes of cereals and 2 billion more tonnes of meat by 2050, in relation to 2005-2007 levels.
“Additional production will also be necessary to provide feedstock for expanding biofuel production”, the report underlines. According to the forecasts, global bioethanol and biodiesel production will almost double by 2021. It will be heavily concentrated in Brazil, the United States and the European Union. The biofuels will mainly be based on agricultural feedstocks and are expected to consume a growing share of the global production of sugarcane (34%), vegetable oil (16%) and coarse grains (14%) by 2021.
In order to meet the growing demand for feedstocks, “the scope for area expansion is limited”, the report warns. “Total arable land is projected to increase by only 69 million hectares (less than 5%) by 2050. Additional production will need to come from increased productivity in the same way as it has for the past 50 years. … Based on their greater potential to increase land devoted to agriculture and to improve productivity, developing countries will provide the main source of global production growth to 2021. Annual production growth in developing countries is projected to average 1.9% per year as compared to 1.2% per year in developed countries” (+7% per year on the global scale).
According to the report, the stocks/consumption ratio for cereals will remain below past averages, which will create a price volatility risk.
The increase in demand for meat will essentially stem from the large economies in Asia, crude oil exporting countries and Latin America, where income gains are expected to be significant. Poultry meat will lead this anticipated growth as the cheapest and most accessibly source of meat protein, overtaking pigmeat as the largest meat sector by the end of the outlook period. Consumption of dairy products is expected to increase only modestly in developed countries, with the exception of cheese and fresh dairy products, “while in developing regions consumption of all products is expected to increase about 30% by 2021. Developing countries are projected to overtake developed countries in milk production by 2013, with large increases in China and India”. (LC/transl.fl)