A surprise which could have been anticipated. The deadline of 14 February has come and gone. What will happen now? The Greek authorities should have submitted the final indications on Wednesday evening on the measures to allow the Eurogroup to give its blessing this Thursday to the payment of the planned financial bailout. It has missed the deadline. The official authorities denied the possibility of a failure until the very last minute; however, there were a number of precursors. I have amply taken stock of this vague situation and, in particular, expressed the impression that the ground was being prepared for a development departing from the official line, in an acknowledgment that Greece leaving or being suspended from the euro would not have contaminated the other countries of the zone. At the same time, I raised the issue of military expenditure and summed up a few explicit positions, notably that of Guy Verhofstadt, on the requirement for the Greek state to be radically reformed, to allow its presence in the eurozone to be possible in the longer term.
Financial circles had pre-empted this. What is particularly worthy of note in these latest developments is the almost calm attitude of the markets: they are behaving as if they had already taken this latest development as a done deal. According to a number of observers, the markets have been giving the impression for some time that they had separated the exploits of Greece from financial activity in the eurozone as a whole.
Certain sections of the financial circles seemed to be wondering: what will the result be if Greece manages to satisfy the preconditions to obtain the latest finance? Answer: six months later, we will have to start all over again. A sort of resigned conviction. And now, as if they had been prepared in advance, plans to get out of the euro (with a return to the drachma) are appearing, together with analyses which indicate that the devalued drachma would attract more tourists (and we all know the importance of tourist revenue) and a better influx of foreign capital.
Is the old plan still valid? The time for long-term projects is apparently not yet here. Announcing the postponement of the meeting scheduled for Thursday, Mr Juncker said what was still missing - the Greek commitment to a final raft of planned budgetary cuts and the explicit promise on the part of the Greek political parties to implement the measures agreed irrespective of the results of the forthcoming elections. But is this plan still valid?
How can we overlook certain eloquent stances at political level? Olli Rehn stressed the need for a tax system in Greece in which the “haves pay tax”. Some people point out that none of the announced reforms (privatisations, reducing civil servant numbers and waste, fighting tax evasion) are making any serious headway. Others stress that the reform of the Greek state is vital, regardless of its membership or otherwise of the eurozone.
A growth potential. The positions taken by the members of the European Parliament multiplied this Thursday, with the EP meeting in Strasbourg (see following pages). Some stances on the sidelines of the plenary session are worthy of note. Anni Podimata, Socialist, said that there were 300 cases of violence during the demonstrations in Athens out of thousands of demonstrators and that the media had given a distorted image of the truth; that some of the European funding has been used effectively, but cannot produce results overnight; that the reform of the public administration has been voted on. In particular, she added that an unexplored growth potential exists, referring to alternative energy sources (the country has plenty of sun, wind and sea) and stating that quality agriculture could be developed (whereas at the moment, most agricultural produce is imported) and that the fight against tax evasion presupposes a reform of the judicial system. For her part, fellow Socialist Catherine Trautmann called on the European Commission to act against the flight of Greek capital to Switzerland (the Greek tax service stands to gain around €16.4 billion, she said), by calling for the communication of bank details, like that obtained from the United States.
A long-term job. In this complex situation, one point seems clear- getting Greece back on track is a long-term job and will not be achieved solely by the methods followed so far. A positive result would transform the country, to the advantage of its citizens above all. The EU would contribute to this in any case, whether or not Greece was in the eurozone.
(FR/transl.fl)