Three aspects of external EU relations, recently discussed in this column, have undergone a number of changes to which attention should be drawn.
Arab Spring: monitoring change. On many occasions I have written about developments in Arab Spring countries and have supported a balance between: a) sometimes overflowing enthusiasm and optimism, following the victory for freedom and democracy; b) and excessive disappointment following electoral successes of Islamic movements in Tunisia and the military remaining in power in Egypt, together with the excesses that it has committed. The idea that, on the other side of the Mediterranean, choices in the electoral arena would be those that we hoped for is totally irrational and reactions have often been unfair, for example: , “Tunisia voted to exchange one dictatorship for another” or, “Islam emigrated to Europe is trying to export its mores, veils and forced marriages”. I continue to believe that the correct line to adopt consists in accepting and respecting what the Arab countries themselves choose while at the same time safeguarding European principles and applying the rule of reciprocity.
Factors determining the attitude adopted by Europeans remain unchanged, particularly with regard to Egypt: the behaviour of the military authorities and respect for religious freedom (for the Copts, for example); Tunisia: interpretation and application of Islamic law, respect for gender equality and rules on illegal immigration (the most recent news regarding the formation of the government are positive); and finally for Libya: the same subjects are at play as they are in Tunisia, together with the question of monitoring the distribution of arms and ammunition.
How we respond on this side of the Mediterranean should obviously take into account what is happening on the other side. I believe that the concerns of the people involved in the Arab Spring, especially the young, should increasingly focus on opportunities for improving their quality of life and getting a job, while questions of principle, now that freedom has been won, will become less of a priority.. Nonetheless, if, for example, Tunisian women lose the degree of freedom that has already been won and if the current Libyan president confirms that, “any law that violates Sharia is legally null and void”, then the EU would indeed have to take the situation into account.
The Arab Spring, however, is not yet over. These free countries and others from the same region, continue to send out what are, above all, encouraging signals. Optimism remains justified as long as it is accompanied by vigilance.
EU/Mercosur: the art of time wasting. Negotiations on the setting up of a free trade zone between the EU and Mercosur never end. During the session that occurred this month, general principles were defined for several aspects (anti-dumping measures, rules of origin, etc.) With regard to public procurement, the exchange of information “yielded results”. Nonetheless, the chapter described as being the most sensitive one of all, the exchange of offers on access to respective industrial and agricultural markets is, “still on standby” (EUROPE 10501). In other words, no progress has been made at all. The truth is that free trade does not exist between Mercosur countries themselves (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, perhaps Venezuela), which are often squabbling amongst themselves with regard to their trade relations. In these conditions, how can a free-trade zone with the EU be envisaged? Who would be responsible for managing it? Projects set up by Brazil, now a global power, also go in other directions. Nevertheless, another meeting has been arranged for 12-16 March 2012. Good luck to them!
Turkey: confirmation. The French minister for foreign affairs, Alain Juppé, has proposed to his EU colleagues that they invite the Turkish foreign minister to the meeting that they will be holding on 1 December in Brussels. Is this an attempt to relaunch negotiations on Turkey's accession to the EU? Not at all, it is quite the contrary. According to Mr Juppé, the same invitation will be sent to the Secretary General of the Arab League and the subject that will be discussed together involves the situation in Syria. The aim of the meeting is to explore possible ways of coordinating the positions of the three powers most directly involved in the Syrian tragedy: the EU, Turkey and the Arab world. Turkey will be invited as an autonomous power, which was the wish expressed by its own government. In my opinion, this line confirms what has already been deduced with regard to developments in Euro-Turkish relations, which I discussed last week: development in cooperation and reciprocal ties, and substantial withdrawal of the accession project (EUROPE 10499).
Certain observers interpret the Turkish line in the Middle East as, “a kind of tussle for influence with Saudi Arabia and Qatar” with regard to the Syrian affair, which they describe as neo-Ottoman. The EU should feel a certain amount of relief because some developments in Turkey - concerning, for example, the freedom of the press (63 Turkish journalists in prison,) control of the internet (with a filter,) and the ever-worsening of a Kurdish situation - would require a response if membership talks were truly on course.. (FR/trans/fl)