Brussels, 28/09/2011 (Agence Europe) - Conflict prevention in developing countries is expected to become easier after a statistical model was developed that establishes a correlation between risk of conflict, its seriousness and the localisation of natural resources in the countries concerned. In a press release published on Wednesday 28 September, the European Commission indicated that the EU Joint Research Centre (JRC) had developed this tool, which combines online news reports with geographical satellite data on current and past conflicts. The data used for this model makes it possible to perform statistical comparisons “on natural resources (including mineral resources), land cover, distribution of population and economic activity, electrification rates, terrain and other geographical data”.
The results obtained indicate not only a link between natural resources and conflict but also help calculate the risk of a conflict being triggered, how long the conflict would last and the potential number of victims. Correlations have also been established that illustrate that risk is higher if it occurs in a zone where there have already been conflicts in the past and that, in the majority of cases, conflict is linked to cattle rustling, the plundering of resources or difficulties linked to water access. Commissioner Máire Geoghegan-Quinn, responsible for research, innovation and science said: “A better understanding of the factors and conditions that lead to tension and insecurity will mean better decisions on aid and crisis prevention mechanisms.” The model was developed in the context of the Global Atlas and Information Centre for Conflicts and Natural Resources project, which focused on 18 countries from four regions: African Great Lakes, the Horn of Africa, Western Africa and Central Asia. (JK/transl.fl)