Brussels, 15/12/2010 (Agence Europe) - International airlines are expected make better than forecast profits this year and next, according to figures released on Tuesday 14 December by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Net profits for 2010 have now been revised upwards to $15.1 billion (€11.2 billion), from the $8.9 billion (€6.6 billion) forecast in September. 2011 profits are forecast at $9.1 billion (€6.8 billion), up on the $5.3 billion (€3.9 billion) announced in September. The differences in the forecasts result largely from improvements in the market and better use of capacity, IATA says.
The main drivers for the 2010 profits are an estimated 8.9% increase in passenger traffic (compared with 7.7% forecast in September), fixed costs and the price of fuel which has not gone above the forecast of $79 per barrel, and revenue growth, which has increased by $5 billion to $565 billion. Profits are expected to be lower in 2011, due especially to increased fuel costs forecast ($84 per barrel), a slowing in growth and the austerity measures adopted in 2010.
Growth forecasts for air freight transport have, however, been revised downwards. IATA forecasts an 18.5% increase for 2010, compared with 19.8% previously. The Association reveals a shift in the main centre of aviation activity from Europe to the emerging countries of Asia whose air carriers will post the largest profits, of $7.7 billion (€5.7 billion). Then come the North American airlines, which will see net profits of $5.1 billion (€3.8 billion) and Latin American carriers with profits of $1.2 billion (€0.8 billion) in 2010. European air carriers' profits come in second lowest among the world's regions, with $400 million (€299 million) in 2010. Forecasts for 2011 indicate that European carriers' profits will shrink to $100 million (€74.7 million), leaving them on a par with African carriers. (A.By./transl.rt)