Copenhagen, 17/12/2009 (Agence Europe) - After a day of total stalemate in international climate negotiations in Copenhagen (EUROPE 10042), the possibility of a breakthrough appeared over lunch on Thursday, when the Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, President of COP 15, clearly announced to the 192 parties attending that the only texts to negotiate would be the two drafts on the table, both of which came from United Nations working groups: the one on the Kyoto Protocol, and the other on long-term cooperation under the United Nations framework Convention, a total of some 60 pages. The Danish Presidency, which had prepared a summary document of just seven pages, decided not to put it forward. This change of mind served to reassure the G77 group and China, which had obstructed negotiations to avoid a text "pulled out of a hat" being thrust upon them, and allowed Lars Lokke Rasmussen to announce the resumption of work. Two contact groups- one on the Kyoto Protocol, the other on long-term cooperation - have been set up to look into the controversial political issues. 16 sub-groups will focus on specific issues and will report back to the groups which will then, in turn, report to the plenary. "The deadline set can be counted in a matter of hours. By early evening, we will see where we are. This is extremely encouraging. We have clarity on the process and on the texts to examine", Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention, told the press, still confident of an agreement which would take the form of a COP 15 decision. Even so, everything remains to be negotiated. "There is still a considerable amount of work to be done, but we are discussing concrete texts", said a European negotiator.
The document on the table on the "Kyoto route" focuses on the next period of commitments, starting in 2013. There is consensus on this date, but differences of opinion over the duration of the commitment period. Some parties, such as the EU and the developing countries, favour 2013-2017 (a period of five years, which would have the advantage of coinciding with the frequency of the IPCC reports); others, such as Canada, would prefer to see 2013-2020 (eight years). This text features provisions on how to account for emissions caused by land use and land use changes (Lulucf). For the time being, none of the reduction objectives announced by the industrialised countries have been agreed upon. The EU's offer to increase to 30% the reduction of its emissions by 2020 is still on the table, but it will be up to the Heads of State and Government to decide whether this should be implemented. It appears that a reduction of 25% could be an option, in line with what the President of the Commission, José Manuel Barroso, told the European Parliament.
The document on long-term cooperation is likely to contain a long-term objective: 2°C, as called for by the United States and the EU, or 1.5°, as requested by the island states of AOSIS. It will also be decided what to do with the United States, which is strongly opposed to getting behind the Kyoto Protocol. If the United States concludes a voluntary agreement in their corner, this could encourage certain countries, such as Japan and Canada, to renege on the binding nature of their objective, a European observer stressed. At the time of writing, this document contained no figures for funding for the developing countries, but the total short-term aid (2010-2012) is expected to be specified.
Some good news, nonetheless: on Thursday, for the first time, the United States referred to the sum of "100 billion dollars a year between now and 2020" as the long-term funding required to support the efforts to be made by the developing countries. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that her country would put in "its fair share" of this total (the EU, for its part, is talking along the lines of 100 billion euros a year between now and 2020, but has not got any figures on the table regarding its contribution). Stressing that the United States really wants an agreement, Ms Clinton said that for the time being, the main obstacle to an agreement relates to the fact that China has not used the "language of transparency" as regards checks and verifications on emissions reductions. Taking great pains not to mention the word "treaty", negotiator-in-chief Todd Stern spoke in favour of "a political agreement here and an operational agreement next year". This news was warmly welcomed by Yvo de Boer, who nonetheless expects that the "United States will say what their contribution will be".
Regarding short-term funding, the United States announced that it was prepared to pay 7.5 billion US dollars over three years, and Japan 10 billion dollars (the EU is at 7.2 billion euros over the same period). That was another bit of good news.
The French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, urged the negotiators to stay up all night to come up with a deal on Friday morning to submit to the world's leaders. He peppered his speech with comments about the fact that nobody would dare to say they disagree, while calling for transparency about commitments, the need for unprecedented finance to help poor countries, the suggestion by the Ethiopian President, on behalf of Africa as a whole, to set up a working group to ensure the funds were allocated fairly. The EU is suggesting a target of around €100 billion by 2020, while Africa is suggesting an intermediate target of €50 billion by 2015. Sarkozy said that new types of funding would be required, along with 10 million dollars a year from 2010 to 2012 for stopping deforestation. He said a Global Environment Organisation should be set up. Sarkozy added that some people seemed very attached to the Kyoto Protocol and they should be allowed to keep it. Likewise for the ideas mooted by Michael Kutajar on long-term cooperation. Why not 'and, and' rather than 'either, or'?, asked Sarkozy in essence, but he warned that people needed to agree on a policy that included these commitments, or similar commitments, and then to allow six months for turning the political agreement into a formal legal document. Calling on people to stop gesture politics because time is running out, Sarkozy said that if agreement were not reached, then it was Africa that would be left to pick up the pieces.
Many countries in Africa talked about the fact that it was the industrialised world that had a climate change debt to pay to Africa because they had created global warming. Africa called on the world's rich countries to show more commitment. Yvo de Boer told a press conference that it was not about debt because the funding promises that have been forthcoming were made because industrialised countries recognise the needs of development countries and because the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change covers technology transfers and financial support for developing countries to help them expand their capacities rather than paying any 'climate debt'. He added that all developing countries want the Kyoto Protocol to continue and be extended because there is no other legally binding international agreement on tackling climate change.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, the six existing sub-groups have been working on: 1) figures, 2) other issues, 3) the potential impact of the new commitments, 4) mechanisms, 5) how to calculate emissions caused by land use and change of land use, and 6) what to do with bunker fuel. Under the United Nations Framework Convention, ten sub-groups are working on a shared vision, funding, emissions reductions for all countries, adjusting climate change adaptation measures in developing countries receiving aid from rich countries, reducing emissions caused by deforestation and the deterioration of forests, market mechanisms, changing technology, capacity building, responding to the impact of industrialised countries' measures to combat climate change on developing countries (for example, the fear of oil-producing countries that income from the sale of oil will fall, the fear of a fallout from including aviation in the EU's carbon trading system and fears about restrictions on biofuel imports). (A.N.)