Global electricity consumption falling but appetite for energy remains intact. Global electricity consumption will fall in 2009, for the first time since the Second World War, says consultancy Capgemini in the eleventh edition of its European Energy Markets Observatory, published on 16 November. According to the report, the downturn has led to expected historic falls of 3.5% and 3% in electricity and gas consumption respectively in 2009. Public utility companies (water, electricity, gas, cleansing) have come under pressure and have had to put a number of measures in place. In the short term, they are disposing of assets and postponing or even cancelling planned investment, to the detriment of renewable energies. In 2008, investment in sustainable energy in Europe rose more slowly (2%) than in the previous five years when the Compound Annual Growth Rate reached 56%. This trend was emphasised by the crisis when European investments in renewable energies fell by 14% in the second half of 2008, compared with the second half of 2007, to $21.2 billion. It is expected that, post-crisis, electricity consumption will increase once again, though more moderately because of energy savings regulations and changes in consumer behaviour, Capgemini suggests. Taking these factors into account, the Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity (UCTE) has revised down its estimates of the additional electricity generation investment needed to maintain security of supply by 2020 from 50,000 Megawatts to 20,000 Megawatts. The economic downturn may have caused energy consumption to fall in industrialised countries, but in emerging economies demand continues to rise. In the medium term, neither the crisis nor prospects of global warming will have any effect on the development of energy consumption, forecasts the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its World Energy Outlook 2009. Compared with last year, the IEA's forecast for world demand remains virtually unchanged. It has dropped its forecast for global primary energy consumption by 4.5% by 2015 and by barely 1.3% by 2030. In its Reference Scenario, it predicts that demand will rise by 40% between 2007 and 2030, at an annual rate of 1.5%. However, the IEA leaves its estimate of demand in the emerging countries unchanged at 0.3%. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix, accounting for more than three quarters of the incremental demand. Non-OECD countries account for over 90% of this increase, and China and India alone for over half. China will probably see its share of total energy consumption rise from 16% in 2007 to 23% in 2030. Thus, the fall in demand from industrialised countries will be counterbalanced by increases among emerging countries: developments in global oil consumption will also stabilise. The IEA estimates that global oil consumption will rise to 105 million barrels per day by 2030, compared with last year's forecast of 106 million barrels per day, and consumption of the order of 86 million barrels per day in 2010. The global gas market is under threat from massive excess production, with supply possibly outstripping demand between 2010 and 2015 resulting from the spectacular increase in US production and the fall in demand because of the crisis. Excess production could reach 200 billion cubic metres by 2015. The crisis will not have an effect on global energy consumption, but it has impacted on oil and gas exploration and production, with investment expected to fall by 19% compared with the previous year. In this context, the IEA warns that there will have to be a profound transformation of the energy sector if global warming is to be contained, while energy consumption continues to rise. Between 2007 and 2030, carbon emissions from coal-powered electricity power stations are likely to rise by 60%. If energy policies are not changed urgently, the temperature of the world could rise 6° by 2030, causing irreparable damage to the environment, the IEA warns. As climate negotiations are about to get underway in Copenhagen, cumulative incremental investment of $10,500 billion will be needed by 2030 to reorient energy policies. The IEA says that every year's delay adds $500 billion to the bill. (I.L./transl.rt)