OECD revises growth predictions upwards. - The Organisation for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) says in its latest Interim Economic Assessment that economic recovery is likely to arrive earlier than expected but the pace of recovery is expected to be “modest” and the threat of further downturn cannot be fully ruled out. Noting “mostly favourable” news on the economic front, the organisation has raised several of it growth forecasts for 2009, including those for Japan (-5.6% compared with -6.8% previously), Germany (-4.8% compared with -6.1%) and France (-2.1% compared with -3%), three countries which officially came out of recession in the second quarter. The euro area as a whole seems to be on the right track, while there is no change for the United States (-2.8% expected) and the new forecast for United Kingdom is for -4.7% growth, compared with the previous forecast of -4.3%. The OECD expects the United States and the euro area to move out of recession in the third quarter, although it provides its predictions with wide margins for error. World trade would appear to be seeing the beginnings of recovery, led by a number of emerging countries. The housing market would also appear to have bottomed-out. The OECD's optimism is tempered, however, by the risk of lasting high levels of unemployment and slow resumption of household consumption and “ample spare capacity”. (I.L.)