Brussels, 24/06/2009 (Agence Europe) - The Commission completed its assessment of stability and and convergence programmes for 2009 on Wednesday 24 June. The last five countries, Austria, Belgium, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia, will see a marked deterioration in their public finances, the Commission says, warning of serious risks to their respective targets.
Austria. From 0.4% of GDP in 2008, the Austrian deficit is expected to rise ot 3.5% of GDP in 2009 and 4.7% over the period from 2010 to 2012, before edging down to 3.9% in 2013. With fiscal stimulus measures representing around 1¼% and 1¾% of GDP for 2009 and 2010, the Commission recommends that Austria reverse the expansionary fiscal stance once the economic crisis subsides and bring the government deficit below 3% of GDP by 2012 at the latest.
Belgium. The Belgian stability programme forecasts a deterioration of the budget deficit from 1.2% of GDP in 2008 to 3.4% of GDP in 2009 and 4% of GDP in 2010. In the absence of crucial information in the programme, the Commission says it is difficult to assess the credibility of these targets. It says that there are considerable downside risks, given the favourable macroeconomic assumptions, and calls on Belgian authorities to submit, by 20 September at the latest, an update of the programme including a well founded medium-term budgetary strategy.
Romania. With no room for manoeuvre, Romania forecasts a restricted fiscal position between 2009 and 2011. In line with the commitments made by Romania in the framework of the EU balance of payment assistance, the country will bring its deficit below 3% of GDP by 2011 (compared with 5.1% of GDP in 2009). The adjustment programme contains risks because of the uncertainty related to the macroeconomic scenario in 2009, the Commission says, and it makes a series of recommendations to Romania.
Slovenia. After slumping to 5.1% of GDP in 2009, the Slovenian deficit is expected to fall slowly to 3.4% by 2011. The economic scenario on which the stability programme is based is optimistic, casting doubt on the fiscal forecasts over the whole period.
Slovakia. Slovakia may be targeting deficits of 3.0%, 2.9% and 2.2% of GDP between 2009 and 2011, but the Commission considers that these projections are based on markedly favourable macroeconomic assumptions. It recommends that Slovakia ensure consolidation from 2010 onwards as the economy recovers and back up the budgetary strategy with specific measures for reducing expenditure. (A.B./transl.rt)