Brussels, 15/04/2009 (Agence Europe) - The need to conclude the Doha Round was once again emphasised at the G20 summit on 2 April in London and by the informal EU/US summit on 5 April in Prague. Pascal Lamy, however, is hoping for a real political re-engagement from global leaders before the summer to arrange another WTO ministerial meeting. The relaunch of Doha negotiations could prove laborious because, as well as the need for commitment from member countries for free trade to tackle the crisis, it also particularly depends on a re-examination of the US trade policy by the Obama Administration and the general elections in India. Another divergence that still persists between developed and developing countries, is the very delicate question of agriculture.
In their “global plan for relaunching reform”, leaders from the main economies in the developed and emerging world declared that they still want to obtain an ambitious and balanced conclusion from the Doha Round, which would allow for the injection of at least $150bn a year into the global economy. They explained that in order to attain this they will need a commitment to support the progress already achieved, including modalities. They also promised to move forward quickly on the dossier and draw from their continuous work and appropriate international meetings to achieve this progress.
José Manuel Barroso remains confident of a breakthrough in the summer, even if the G20 did not set any deadline for obtaining a definitive compromise on modalities for liberalising trade in agriculture and manufactured products (NAMA), which have stalled since the failure of the ministerial last July in Geneva. In the days following the G20, the Commission president declared that “we agreed to work with our G20 partners to make progress on Doha at the G8”on 8-10 July on the island of Maddalena, off Sardinia, where G8 leaders will meet their counterparts from key emerging countries, Brazil, China and India. A reaffirmed political commitment and tangible progress on the toughest chapters in the talks will therefore lead Mr Lamy to a swift call for another ministerial meeting, identical in format to the one last July.
Nonetheless, a political re-engagement from any technical progress made will depend to a large extent on the strategy of the new US administration on trade matters, which has so far not been defined. It will also depend on India's position, which is facing general elections in April-May. Given the persistent disagreements after the first G20 summit last November on three key dossiers - Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM) in agriculture for developing countries, sector agreements for industrial products and the cotton issue, Mr Lamy decided to call for a new ministerial in December. Developed countries, particularly the US, wanted sectorals, which include a voluntary agreement by member states to progressively get rid of customs duties in 14 industrial sectors, including cars, machines, electronics, toys and textiles. Convergence on this dossier hinges on a firm commitment from the big emerging economies such as Brazil, China and India. Serious differences between the US and India over the special safeguard mechanism were at the source of the failure of the July 2008 meeting. This mechanism aims at protecting agriculture in developing countries from sudden and massive increases of imports. It remains stalled, despite efforts made at a technical effort to achieve convergence in Geneva. A continuing disagreement between the US and C-4 countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad) is over the cotton issue and still requires a comprehensive solution.
Speaking in Zimbabwe on 7 April, Mr Lamy reaffirmed the fact that the Doha Round could be concluded eight months after an agreement on modalities. In an interview to Reuters on the same day, the former European commissioner explained that the WTO would give the US time to convey its position on Doha and would wait to the end of the general elections in India (mid-May). Mr Lamy insisted: “I will arrange a meeting as soon as possible but I will not set a cut-off date. I will bring the ministers together again when I feel there is a will to compromise”. He concluded that “if we get there and step up the pace, what we call modalities, the end of the round, can be completed six or eight months later”.
As well as the pending questions (sectorals, SSM and cotton) and the uncertainty of the US and India's commitment to the question of member states' commitment to resisting protectionist impulses to tackling the world crisis, there is still the question of agriculture, which remains the main stumbling block in the Doha Round and an extremely sensitive question. According to a document prepared by the Italian presidency of the G8 and unveiled by the Financial Times, the G8 countries (Germany, Canada, US, France, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and Russia) are expected to call for immediate assistance to help agriculture to prevent a global food crisis. To this end, Rome has proposed holding a meeting of G8 agriculture ministers on 18-20 April near Treviso, which has been extended to six emerging countries: South Africa, Brazil, China, Egypt, India and Mexico. (E.H./transl.rh)