Brussels, 15/12/2008 (Agence Europe) - Not courting unacceptable risks of failure, not risking damage not only to the Doha Round itself, but also the multilateral trade system. This was how the Director-General of the WTO, Pascal Lamy, speaking before the ambassadors of the 153 member countries on Friday 12 December, justified his decision not to convene a meeting of the trade ministers of around 30 key countries this side of Christmas to conclude an agreement on the details for the liberalisation of trade in agriculture and industrial products (NAMA), despite clear convergence between the parties. "I did not detect the political dynamics needed for an agreement. Positions have not changed sufficiently", explained Mr Lamy, throwing in the towel after a month of intense negotiations, both technically at the headquarters of the WTO and politically, in the framework of ministerial-level consultations.
After the Summit in Washington, where the leaders of 20 largest economies of the world announced their commitment to resist giving in to the temptation to take protectionist measures in the face of the international crisis (EUROPE 9784), explaining that they had political support which was missing from the ministerial WTO in July (EUROPE 9714), Mr Lamy relaunched the process in mid-November to try to reconcile the positions of the developed and emerging countries and thus conclude negotiations for the multilateral agreement by the end of the year. The work saw a certain amount of success with the publication, on 6 December, of the new compromise texts drafted by the WTO mediators for agriculture and NAMA, Crawford Falconer and Luzius Wasescha respectively, to be used as a basis for the negotiations between ministers. On Friday, however, Mr Lamy unwillingly admitted that the lack of convergence of opinions on three crucial dossiers made it impossible for him to convene a meeting of ministers: the special safeguard mechanism- designed to protect the agriculture of the developing countries in the event of a sudden massive increase in imports- and cotton for the agricultural plank; the sectoral agreements- which, on the basis of voluntary participation of the member states, provide for the phasing-out of customs duty from 14 industrial sectors, including automotives, machines, electronics, textiles- for the NAMA plank.
Following the announcement of the WTO leader's decision, the main negotiators started to put the blame on each other for this latest postponement of the Doha Round, which was launched in 2001. The head of Brazilian diplomacy, Celso Amorim, accused Washington of "greed" over its maximalist demands, particularly on the sectorals dossier, whereupon the United States ambassador to the WTO, Peter Allgeier, hit back at the emerging countries, stating that they would not agree to the slightest effort. "The agricultural safeguard clause and the industrial sectoral negotiations are economic affairs of relatively lesser importance than the hundreds of subjects not raising issues. But each of the parties is convinced that if it gave an inch, it would lose out. The way things look, it appears that there is a disproportion between the economic reality and what, politically, is at stake. And in the meantime, the developing countries are becoming impatient that they are not taking advantage of the benefits contained within a global agreement which is almost complete and always rejected!", said Mr Lamy in an interview with French the French daily newspaper Le Monde of 16 December. If the WTO boss refuses to point the finger at any country or countries for this breakdown, all of the observers have clearly apportioned blame to three countries in particular (China, the United States and India).
Most of the analysts see no outcome of the Doha Round in anything less than a year. On the European side, the Trade Commissioner, Catherine Ashton, is determined to conclude next year and is therefore urging the WTO and its member countries persuade the American President-elect, Barack Obama, who will take up his duties on 20 January next year, to consider a ministerial conference as early as possible in 2009. In the view of Mr Lamy, with the prospect of a considerable global economic slowdown next year, an agreement underpinning international solidarity will still be a hot topic. "We are close, very close to the final objective of detailed figures. We must now concentrate on how we are to garner the political energy needed in the New Year", he stressed, speaking on Friday. Working from January to convince the Obama administration of the need to conclude Doha in 2009 will be his first challenge. (E.H./trans.fl)