Brussels, 11/06/2008 (Agence Europe) - A study carried out by the French University of Le Havre by request of the World Customs Association (WCA) has found that only a small number of international ports will partially be able to respect the American law "House Resolution 1", which will require all containers being sent to the United States to be scanned before they are loaded in the port of origin, as from 2012. If applied, this law will have major repercussions on the entire global logistics chain. The study has sketched four scenarios aiming to create a model of the development of this chain and the possible regulatory response of the commercial partners of the United States and international organisations.
What would happen if the American law entered into force in summer 2012? There are two scenarios which are "by far the most likely", explains Frédéric Carluer, researcher at the University of Le Havre: - no port is able to scan 100% of containers; - a few large international ports are able to scan a considerable percentage of containers destined for the United States. He observed that the former scenario would have the advantage of allowing "a greater diversity of possible responses" such as abandoning the law, postponing its application until 2014 or reducing the percentage of containers to be scanned (50%, 30%). Nevertheless, if the American law is applied from 2012, it will, he believes, "jeopardise the flow of international traffic" leading to an "immediate slow-down in economic growth" and "great changes to the map of flows" to the benefit of ports able to respect, at least partly, conditions for containers to enter American territory.
"We have lost the battle in terms of risk management", lamented Michel Danet, Secretary General of the WCA. He went on to add: we have failed to convince the American authorities that risk management, which calls for the scanning of around 3% of containers, selected on the basis of specific parameters, was enough to ensure the additional security called for by the United States since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. The framework of standards of the WCA, a model which is based on the analysis of risks and aiming both to facilitate legitimate trade and make the logistics chain more secure, is directly challenged by the American "100% scanning" law (see EUROPE 8981). Mr Danet, who is convinced that "100% scanning is not 100% security", said that the WCA was drafting "counter proposals" to put to the United States once the forthcoming administration is in place. These proposals are likely to be reasonably similar to those suggested by Mr Carluer. Mr Danet regretted the fact that with the HR1 bill, the United States are passing on to their trade partners all security-related risks and the costs involved in reducing these risks. "If there is an additional cost, this will be passed on to the consumer", he said.
Until the matter is resolved, the ports cannot be certain as to whether they need to invest to come into line with the new conditions unilaterally decided on by the United States. It is like a "massive game of liar's poker", at the end of which "there will be winners and losers", said Mr Danet. "Everything will depend on what the ports do in terms of investment", confirmed Mr Carluer. Dubai, which is to quadruple its scanning facilities, is prepared to play the game and even to offer scanning services free of charge as a competitive advantage over its competitors. Tangiers Mediterranean and Singapore have decided to invest to increase their market shares. In Veracruz, Mexico, investments have been made to move towards 100% scanning, a solution along with others in Canada to relieve congestion in the American ports. Under construction in the Bay of Shanghai is what will be the world's largest port, which will also focus on scanning. "It is easier for the new ports", observed Mr Carluer. Europe, meanwhile, is reluctant or hesitant to invest: Le Havre, Amsterdam and Antwerp are still thinking, and the Germans refuse to budge. However, the pilot project carried out by the European and American customs in Southampton shows that "40 or 45% scanning is feasible", according to Mr Danet.
"The position of the European Commission is relatively passive", as it is working on the basis that 100% scanning will not apply, observes Mr Carluer, who has nonetheless noted a change in discourse at the European institution of the last six months. Some are brandishing the threat of measures similar to the HR1 law, to be applied to American ports. "If the EU or China called for the principle of reciprocity, the United States would be (...) unable to comply", said the French researcher. It is worth noting that in March, the European Commission and the American department for customs and border protection adopted a roadmap targeting the mutual recognition, by 2009, of European and American customs security programmes.
In 2006, 18 million containers entered American ports, representing 11% of world traffic. 65% of these containers originated in Asia (50% of them from China) and 13% from the EU. The Californian ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handled 44% of all containers arriving on the American coasts. According to the study, 30 million containers will be exported to the United States in 2012, and the proportion of these originating from Asia will be between 80% and 92% (75% from China). (M.B./transl.fl)