Brussels, 18/02/2008 (Agence Europe) - demand for skills and qualifications is being driven upwards in most occupations, including in so-called elementary jobs, by the continuing rise of the service sector and sweeping technological and organisational changes. This is the essential conclusion of the first EU forecast of skill needs published on 18 February by Cedefop, the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training. The study does not cover Bulgaria and Romania but does cover Norway and Switzerland.
The forecasts cover the period up to 2015 and show that the long transition of European economies away from the primary and manufacturing sectors towards the service sector is not yet complete. The new member states in particular are still going through the process. But the transition is gradual: the traditional sectors still employ significant numbers of people and will continue to do so in the medium term.
By 2015, the primary sector is expected to employ 10 million workers across Europe - down from 12 million in 2006 (15 million in 1996) - while manufacturing will employ 34,5 million - down from 35 million over the same period (38 million in 1996). However; services are where the real growth is. The economy as a whole will generate more than 13 million new jobs by 2015 - despite the loss of well over 2 million jobs in the primary sector and half a million in manufacturing. Transport and distribution, including tourism, will create 3.5 million additional jobs, while business and various services offer the best employment prospects in the medium term, generating 9 million new jobs by 2015. Another 3 million additional jobs will be created in education, health and social work. Even more significant in its impact than the continuing shift to the service sector is the growing requirement of skills and qualifications at all levels. The demand for high skills has not yet peaked. Today, 80 out of 210 million European workers are in highly-skilled, non-manual jobs and this high proportion is expected to rise further. Between 2006-2015, Europe will gain 12.5 million additional jobs at the highest qualification level and 9.5 million at the medium level (especially vocational qualifications). But jobs for workers with low qualifications will decline by 8.5 million. Even jobs for unskilled manual workers are demanding more qualifications, while skilled manual workers will increasingly need medium-level qualifications.
A Cedefop official concluded that in 2015, half of the working population would need medium-level qualifications, 30% specialist skills and only 20% would be able to work with low level qualifications. The official said that investments currently agreed by member states in education and professional life-long training will therefore continue, but non-formal qualifications would also need to be recognised. John Macdonald, the spokesperson for Commissioner Figel, responsible for education and training, also revealed that the EU average of adults participating in education and life-long training activities is currently 9.6%, with big disparities between member states (in Finland for example it is 30%, whereas the level is very low in the new member states). Member states have set themselves a target of 12.5% by 2015. The Cedefop official explained that there were still 80 million people with a low level of qualification, a proportion comparable to the population of Germany. (I.L.)