Brussels, 17/01/2007 (Agence Europe) - “Poland will fulfil the fiscal convergence criteria at the start of 2009, with everything that that implies”, Polish Finance Minister Zyta Gilowska told reporters on Wednesday. She hinted that Poland could fulfil all Maastricht criteria in 2009 leading to membership to the eurozone. Last November, when Ms Gilowska had pointed out that her government intended to organise a referendum in 2010 on the prospect of joining the eurozone, EU finance ministers had slammed Poland's lack of progress in making up its budgetary deficit (EUROPE 9316). However, once the Commission has analysed Warsaw's updated convergence programme, a new deadline for adjustment will be set for Poland (under Article 104§7 of the Treaty). The year 2009 seems to be a likely date. A first series of stability and convergence programmes will be assessed by the College of Commissioners on 24 January, but not those of Poland. Countries concerned by next week's meeting are: Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark, Slovenia, Slovakia and Cyprus.
Although, at this stage, Poland's public debt is within the limits set under the Stability and Growth Pact, this is expected to change during 2007 as the cost of pension reform will be taken into account when calculating the debt. After reaching 2.5% of GDP in 2005, the deficit should fall to 2.2% in 2006 and even 2% in 2007. But, as of April 2007, statistical rules will no longer allow the cost of pension reform to be excluded from debt calculation, which should entail re-evaluation of the figures of the Polish debt amounting to 2 percentage points.
After a rise of 3.5% in 2005, Polish growth increased by 5.7% in 2006, the finance minister pointed out. Last year, the EU notched up an increase of 2.8% of GDP on average compared to 1.7% in 2005, according to the Commission's latest economic outlook. The debt will be 43.1% of GDP, and the level of inflation 2.5%. (ab)