Prevent the rupture. The development is even more swift than had been thought. It is not just the difficulties in the negotiations between the EU and Turkey that are being talked about (on this point, the European Parliament gave an eloquent warning) but also the possibility of the accession project being abandoned. I believe that the two parties have noticed for a long time that negotiating a solution other than negotiation would be preferable (especially for Turkey). I wrote this a week ago (EUROPE 9277). At the present time, the very viability of accession negotiations are under threat and one is beginning to talk about a mutual desire to create a rupture from the manoeuvres and blame the other side for the situation (Werner Langen MEP said that Turkey is seeking to provoke a halt in negotiations and then “get the EU to take responsibility for it”. I have a more amicable scenario: It would be preferable to carry out honest negotiations until a common agreement, either a strengthened partnership or a form of association, to define later on, is obtained. But the tone is changing in the sense of reciprocal criticism and rupture. Let's hope that the next high level discussions, and the Commission report for the beginning of November will allow for pacification of these accusations and polemic and that negotiations will evolve in the direction of a change in the objective when the time is right.
Very weak arguments. It is understandable that the supporters of accession get themselves heard. I'll quote Joschka Fisher because he was the German minister for foreign affairs for a long time, because his text clearly and skilfully resumes the pro-accession arguments and because this text was published in several Member States. His thesis is simple: the EU should elaborate a “broad European Strategy” for the East of the Mediterranean and Middle East, and Turkey will play a central role there at a political, military, economic and cultural level. Modernisation and democratisation, fundamental for Turkey itself, will also serve as a “model of transformation for the Islamic world”. According to Fischer, an attitude opposing Turkish accession is “irresponsible” because it pushes Turkey into forging alliances with Russia and Iran and that the feeling of being relegated to the margins of the west is developing in Turkey itself. His conclusion, “relations between Europe and Turkey are heading right into the wall. Neither one nor the other can allow for such a foreseeable collision to occur”.
In my opinion these arguments do not carry any weight. Everything Mr Fischer wants is possible in a strengthened partnership. It is not out of European reticence (in response to getting the Copenhagen criteria respected) that has led to the Turkish people voting for a religious party or the government not recognising an EU country and so forth. These are Turkish choices and this is the reality of the country.
Smell of oil. What political and economic forces in Turkey correspond to choices made in the west? The main one is Tusiad, the business organisation, which is very active (in the positive sense) in Brussels. The military class might also be on pro-western lines as it is the historic guardian of the secular principles introduced by Ataturk but European rules on the supremacy of civil power weakens its role. Therefore, for contrasting reasons, the majority of the population voting for a religious power and the military defenders of secularism become increasingly distrustful of each other.
And what should be said about the Kurdish affair, the strongest reason for creating reticence about European rules and the protection of minorities? Asked about the action of Kurds in the north of Iraq and the possibility that Turkey intervenes in this zone to control the PKK, the Turkish minister of foreign affairs, Abdullah Gul declared in a recent interview to the US press, “we will do what is necessary. My message is that if our friends (namely the Americans and the official Iraqi government) do not help us, we will do the work ourselves”. And we know only too well how the region smells of oil…
Accusations. General Yashar Buykanit, the Head of the military staff declared to the Istanbul Military Academy that “Islamic fundamentalism is increasingly threatening secularism and it is necessary to take urgent measures to stop it”, adding that the Islamisists were using European rules to weaken the role of the military in the pursuit of Islamisising the whole of society.
This is the situation as it appears from a Turkish point of view. And from the Europeans? The “El País” newspaper published the article by Joschka Fischer and wrote in the accompanying column that “the result (on Turkish accession) may be a very vast but paralysed Union, with a reduced level of democratic demands”. Who wants this? See this section yesterday on the opinion expressed by Angela Merkel. (F.R.)
European Parliament Plenary Session