Not enough reflection? The worst has happened: the European Commission has suspended negotiations on a stabilisation and association agreement with Serbia, because of the Serbian authorities' failure to cooperate sufficiently with the International Criminal Tribunal (ICT) over the arrest of Ratko Mladic. I wonder if the consequences of this decision have been properly assessed. Certainly it was difficult for the Commission to do otherwise; the cooperation of the Serbian government with the ICT was one of the clearly stated conditions for concluding the agreement, and Carla Del Ponte, the ICT Chief Prosecutor, and the person best placed to talk about this cooperation, has been negative in her comments. Greater thought should have been given at the start: was it reasonable to make this cooperation requirement into a virtual ultimatum? To make it a necessary criterion? I repeat the perplexity already expressed in this column, because the suspension of talks, if it continues, will have dramatic repercussions in Serbia and in the whole region.
Dramatic repercussions. In Serbia, the ending (or, let us hope, the suspension) of negotiations could provoke a reaction within the population of wounded pride, which radical nationalists (already the largest party in parliament) and other extremists will exploit to their advantage. The fragile pro-Europe coalition governing in Belgrade could be put in danger. Deputy Prime Minister Miroljub Labus, who is in charge of negotiations with the EU, has announced his resignation and called on the Ministers from his party to do likewise. The political forces opposed to closer links with the EU could see their views carry the day. Without EU pressure, the democratisation of the country and its perspectives for economic development would be put in doubt.
At regional level, without Serbia, the Balkans stability zone, which is at the heart of the European strategy, would be hugely weakened, maybe even unrealisable. Negotiations on the future status of Kosovo would become virtually impossible and useless. Overall, the results of years of hard work, including attempts to redress the situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina, would be compromised.
Several experts and commentators have called on people not to be misled about the permanence of progress in this area. At first sight, borders are being respected, freedom and democracy are emerging, economic recovery is underway. Croatia is engaged in EU accession talks. But let us not forget the conclusions of the International Commission on the Western Balkans, chaired by Giuliano Amato. After travelling the region for several months, it concluded that none of the fundamental problems had been resolved: in some areas, there is stability only because of the presence of UN and EU armed forces; some countries would cease to function without EU funding; Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina are virtual protectorates which will not be able to survive indefinitely, because this is holding back the resolution of fundamental issues and not encouraging the population to develop the abilities which would one day allow them to govern themselves. The Amato Commission suggested drawing up a “roadmap” for each country which would lead to general EU accession in 2014 (with the possibility of early accession for Croatia, and perhaps Macedonia). The exclusion of Serbia and the lack of a solution to the Kosovo problem would make this plan a pipedream. Is it reasonable to risk such a failure, just because General Mladic has not been arrested?
Shared responsibility. I am not criticising Ms Del Ponte: she has a task to do - pursuing war criminals and bringing them to justice - and she intends to achieve it. But those with political responsibility should have a broader view of the future, and also the past (the responsibility for the conflict in the former Yugoslavia are shared, atrocities too) and not compromise the future of a people and the whole region because a war criminal is missing. Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, commenting on the European Commission's decision, said “It is the first time in our country's history that the whole people have to pay for a single officer”. This could mean that Mladic should give himself up, or that it is difficult to justify the EU decision.
The Serbs were, at one and the same time, executioners and victims, like us all. Peter Hanke, accused of pro-Serbian bias in one of his novels, said, “I wrote about the Serbian victims because no one speaks about them, but I am also thinking about Croat and Moslem victims”. And Claudio Magris has criticised “those who are always going on about the crimes of Milosevic's men, but say nothing about the crimes of the others who, unlike the Serbs, have not impacted on Western consciousness”. If the developments are sincere, the past must not condition the future, because the aim is the final end to conflict.
(F.R.)