Mario Monti's initiative. I very much doubt that Mario Monti's suggestion on the Constitution will be taken up; however, I feel that it is a very important one, and that it merits discussion. I refer to the "political strategy" he recommends should one or more Member States fail to ratify the constitutional treaty. Given the almost insurmountable legal difficulties resulting from this situation, the former European Commissioner for Competition suggested (in a dazzling article on the front page of "Corriere della Sera" last month) a political solution: all governments will make a commitment now that, should their country not ratify the Constitution, the following question will be put either to the people, by referendum, or to the national parliament: "Do you want your country to remain a member of the Union, or do you want it to leave?". If any country chooses to leave, the conditions for this would be negotiated. This would mean that the hypothetical "no" of one country would not have the unacceptable effect of allowing the will of a few thousand citizens of this one country to wipe out a project which is supported by the vast majority of Member States and by hundreds of millions of citizens of the Union.
Why do I not believe that this suggestion will be taken up? Because there is every sign that there is a consensus (explicitly or tacitly) between the heads of government not to discuss what would happen if the ratification process broke down, in whichever country; at least not yet. I imagine that, particularly in countries where the vote could go either way, the authorities want to avoid the impression of external pressure on the citizens, of meddling in national affairs. The Commission has been advised to avoid propaganda, sticking instead to awareness and clarification campaigns. All governments want to stay in charge of their own national campaigns, because they feel they are better placed to convince their people (as we well know, in certain countries the side of the Constitution most likely to appeal to national public opinion has been pushed forward…), and do not feel it is helpful to establish a link between rejecting the Constitution and withdrawing from the Union. When invited to promote the Monti plan at European level, the Italian Foreign Minister Gianfranco Fini declined, saying that there was no point basing a strategy on hypothetical situations, and the Italian European Commissioner Franco Frattini said that although the Heads of Government should certainly think about all outcomes, no single one should be defined until the results of the ratification have been published: at that stage, the Monti formula may turn out to be the right one, alongside others.
The evasive issue. Why do I think the Monti initiative is so important anyway? Because it raises the fundamental issue, which has always been skirted round, of finally asking the Europeans: what kind of Europe do you want? The time for vague assertions, of support for a Union to which everyone attributes the nature and characteristics he or she prefers, is over. Another former European Commissioner, Chris Patten, raised the problem for his country a year ago, on 30 January 2004, in a speech to the University of Cambridge: "Will Britain ever actually join the EU?". In its current alternative draft constitutional treaty (the "Penelope" draft), the European Commission included the following provision: "if, at a date to be decided on, five-sixths of the Member States have ratified this agreement, it enters into force and the Member States which have not ratified it are understood to have decided to leave the Union". It comes as no surprise that this wording was not kept, but from a political point of view, the president of the Convention, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, interpreted matters in a similar way: "Any Member State which has not ratified the Constitution is understood to have decided to leave the Union". Other ideas have been put forward; see our bulletin of 9 December, p.8.
The political orientation which is slowly becoming indispensable. One of the two European Parliament rapporteurs on the Constitution, Inigo Mendez de Vigo, said last week: "If their critical mass is sufficient, the States which ratified the Constitution will lead from the front. They will denounce the existing treaties and meet the next day to approve the new Constitution between themselves. Those who think that nothing will happen in the case of failure to ratify are mistaken. We have invested too much in this Constitution to allow it to fail". This will be easier said than done, because the Treaty of Nice will remain legally in force for the "non-constitutional" Member States and solutions must be found: but the main thing to be noted here is the political orientation which is gradually coming to the fore. In practice, it means that it is not the ones which reject the Constitution which will set the pace by blocking the others, but that those with the ambitions will lead the way, because they will go forward, leaving the sceptical countries on the sidelines (with no compunction, because they will have the European they want too). Against this backdrop, Mario Monti's initiative takes on its full significance. (F.R.)