login
login
Image header Agence Europe
Europe Daily Bulletin No. 8331
A LOOK BEHIND THE NEWS /

Lessons and positive repercussions of stability Pact controversy

Myth and reality. I will step back from the chorus of set views expressed over the recent vicissitudes of the Stability Pact, which has been buffeted back and forth in recent weeks. The three European Commissioners who criticised the abrupt nature of the Pact (President Prodi, Pascal Lamy and Mario Monti) have always said it had to be respected, particularly the 3% rule, as it clear from reading their speeches rather than selecting quotes out of context. But the broad reactions of various figures (including a handful of MEPs) and bolt from the blue headings in some of the media have misled public opinion to such an extent that Pedro Solbes and the European Central Bank had to hammer home the validity of the Pact and its flexibility. Over and above this storm in the media, there are a few undeniable facts that need stressing in that they demonstrate how far the myths (porkies?) that are bandied about clash with reality:

  • The markets have retained their confidence in the euro, which has barely fluctuated and only for a very short time. This week, the euro again rose above the $0.98% mark.
  • Germany recognises that its budget has temporarily slid with regard to the 3% rule and its government has said that it would not object to Brussels' warning in this connection, but would pledge to meet the gap next year and reach a balanced budget by 2006. This is very positive both from the economic viewpoint (Germany is clearly on course to scrap its deficit) and in terms of respecting the rules, through simple application of the Pact rules.
  • The other three "sliding" countries (France, Italy and Portugal) will probably come round to a similar position. Despite a few inopportune statements by a finance minister, heads of state have said that the Pact will be respected in the spirit and the letter of the law.
  • Romano Prodi's "exclamations" have given rise to debate over the application of the Stability Pact and making it "more intelligent", but also, and more importantly, over strengthening economic coordination (which I see as his true objective). We have heard Jacques Delors again, noting that Europe will walk on one leg, a monetary leg, if the Stability Pact is not accompanied by an economic coordination pact (see Europe of 28 October, p.11). According to the Danish prime minister and the British finance minister, Europe does not need such a pact, but these two countries are not part of the eurozone.

Positive development. You would have to be blind or distinctly perverse to miss the positive aspects of recent discussions. A debate has been launched and its outcome should help the EU's economic governance make progress by clarifying rules and practice. At the same time, the debate will stimulate the Convention's work on the institutional aspect, in other words how the Pact functions, and the role of the European Commission. The Convention can only define the principles and operation of common policies since defining the content is the task of parliaments (national and European), Community institutions and governments, each of which has been given its own responsibilities. The Treaty notes that Member States coordinate their economic policies as a matter of common interest (Article 99), and the Convention should expand this measure by considering the Commission's suggestions. But a Constitutional Treaty cannot go any further. MEPs and civil society have to understand that.

If the euro didn't exist. The few lines on the euro above deserve comment. It is exclusively due to the existence of the single currency and its rigorous management by the European Central Bank (ECB) that Member States responsible for 'slippage' have not had to pay hard cash for their budget slips. Past experience shows us that in a system of national currencies, the currencies of failing countries would have immediately been subject to a greater or lesser degree of speculation and this would have led to devaluation. Have we forgotten the "black weekends" at the Borschette Centre in Brussels, the sudden meetings of the monetary committee and the unpleasantly feverish negotiations between finance ministers with the basic economic policies of certain countries, along with their national prestige, hanging in the balance? Some of the people complaining about the ECB's interest rates today should remember their own interest rates ahead of the introduction of the euro, which would soon be repeated if the single currency didn't exist. These comments might explain various heads of state's attachment to the Stability Pact.

(F. R.)

 

Contents

A LOOK BEHIND THE NEWS
THE DAY IN POLITICS
GENERAL NEWS
SUPPLEMENT