Brussels / Geneva, 01/08/2001 (Agence Europe) - The Director General of the World Trade Organisation sent out a warning at the beginning of the week in Geneva, where the ambassadors of the 142 member countries were meeting, for an informal session, regarding their chances of succeeding in launching a new round, in Doha this autumn, were poor. According to Mike Moore, unless "real negotiations" begin "immediately" on the agenda, with the exchanges of concessions and political choices that that implies, it would be a failure - the second with the breakdown in Seattle - "that would lead many people to place back into question the value of the WTO as negotiating forum", leave the world economy on the point of exhaustion and bring several developing countries to the margins of the system. Optimism is, however, gaining the Americans, and even more so the Europeans, who today speak of "convergence around a large and substantial negotiating agenda". "The situation is fragile, and without generosity, good manners or good will the process could implose and become unmanageable", Mr. Moore warned, considering that "the moment of truth has come", to emerge from set position and get closer together. A new Round is, according to him, the only way of ensuring that "the system of rules incarnated by the WTO responds to economic reality" and "of backing the negotiating movement on agriculture and services", which simply have no deadline. Sure, he conceded to Tanzania - spokesman for the least advanced countries that fear again being trapped by vain Western promises - the existing rules are at times unfair. But, he says, "only negotiations can get us there", and any refusal "means the acceptance of the status quo that represents yesterday's compromise". Implementation of agreements to have emerged from the previous cycle of the so-called Uruguay Round is a real knot in preparations. These agreements raise a series of problems for the developing world, of a technical and pecuniary nature, and the feeling of being led into a plan that plays to the advantage of the rich countries (going from the anti-dumping arsenal whose products are frequently the target, to health and plant health measures passing by the Anti-Subsidiary Code). According to sources close to the talks, "many developing countries" are still following India, Pakistan, Malaysia and Egypt in their demands for solutions to these problems as precondition to their taking part in the Round, to which they nevertheless do not want to say "no". This group of countries, tempted by limited negotiations on market access, seems hardly convinced at this stage of the interest in dealing with new subjects that the Union has highlighted in talks, especially as market access for farm produce - their second battle cry - and services have already been the subject of sectoral negotiations. Mistrust remains particularly strong regarding intentions, mainly European, over the environment and food safety, that they still suspect of being disguised protectionism despite all the efforts at clarification made by the Union. In addition, most developing countries will not back off: anti-dumping must be placed on the negotiating table.
The tendency is nevertheless towards optimism in Brussels, as in Washington. "We can succeed in finding a formula that it attractive to all, including the most sceptic", said Peter Allgeier, United States' Deputy Representative for Trade. The director General for Trade in the European Commission, Morgens Peter Carl detected in statements by some that the feeling "of a large number of members have the will to reach a consensus on the agenda for Doha, that is sufficiently large and substantial for seduce all". According to him, the training is clearly on track". What are the reasons for this confidence? "Many participants expressed the will to have a new trade round and backed or said they were open to a broad agenda covering both liberalisation and rules", stressed Mr. Carl also raising the support, among the developed and developing countries and within different regional groups, "to deal, among other things, with investment and competition in the Round, on condition the particular problems linked to these issues be settled and that the overall balance of the agenda be good". The fact that the United States has, for the first time, publicly referred to its interest for these new subjects is particularly comforting, sources in Brussels stress, citing the support of Brazil and other Latin American countries. The Europeans to are reassured at having been able to convince Washington of the need to meet with developing countries on the question of implementation, the same sources told us, considering that the "agenda will be intended to help these countries". There is time left, Moore conceded, an ministers from some twenty countries who are among the main actors in the system should meet in Mexico (at a date yet to be determined, but in any case before the rendez-vous of the 142 in Geneva, in September).