Brussels, 12/07/2001 (Agence Europe) - In Bonn, where the international negotiation on the climate (COP6, 6-7 July) will continue on Monday, the European Union, determined to save the Kyoto Protocol, should make the great leap to win its gamble: remain firm over the targets and timetable of the Protocol to preserve environmental integrity, show flexibility in the negotiation to rally the number of countries required to ratify the Protocol in 2002 (55 countries contributing 55% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the world), while in the knowledge that the United States - crucial partner as the largest contributors to global warming - have renounced ratifying it, that Australia will not ratify without the United States and Japan waits, still hoping, against all expectations, for the return of the Americans to the process so as not to have to move forward without its privileged partner. The statements made on Wednesday to the press by Olivier Deleuze, Belgian Secretary of State for Energy and Sustainable Development and Margot Wallström, Commissioner for the Environment, on returning from their mission to Australia and Japan (see EUROPE of 9&10 July, p.7 and 7 July, p.6), give a precise idea of the scope of the challenge and the difficulty of the task. Though both refuse to consider that an impossible mission awaits the Union, the priority, according to them, being to achieve a good agreement in Bonn, then to continue the negotiations with the United States. In short: 1) The Union is prepared to negotiate rules for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol (in accordance with the agenda of the COP6), but not the Protocol itself, the Heads of State and Government of the EU 5 having, in Gothenburg, given the mandate to ratify it in 2002; 2) the Union feels that the probability of rallying the United States in the short-term is extremely bleak, but it feels that in the end, a multilateral agreement from which it would be excluded while the US produces 25% of the greenhouse gas emissions, would not be effective; 3) thus it would first be suitable not to await the United States, but to maintain the target of obtaining their involvement in the process in the future.
Japan's position widely differs from the Australian position. Until the last minute, Japan will do all that is in its power to bring the United States back to the process; thus it considers it premature to ratify the Protocol independently from the United States, but it does not intend to delay the ratification process. These three elements seem at first glance contradictory, but would not be so if the desire to find a solution exists, feels Olivier Deleuze. According to him, the factors pushing towards pessimism (the waiting in the face of a possible ratification and the size of the gap separating the positions of the various parties concerning the carbon wells, the target monitoring mechanisms and the development aid) are counterbalanced by the positive elements: the realisation at the highest level and in all the countries that this is a dossier exceeds purely environmental issues, and the unanimous agreement over the need to find a solution. Feeling that a solution which does not respect the environmental integrity of the Kyoto Protocol serves nothing, he adds: If the Union truly wants, in Bonn, an agreement providing sufficient information to allow for a greater number to take part in its ratification, the Union must not for as much be flexible with everybody. Flexibility must be shared, otherwise all the doubts will be permitted as to the positive impact of the Protocol on the environment. Recalling that those most responsible for climatic change are the industrialised countries, but the first affected are the poor countries. He feels that in order to allow developing countries and the United States to come on board, it is necessary to prevent the boat from sinking, and for it not to sink, me must move forward.
Margot Wallström, for her part, outlined the commitment of Australia and Japan to negotiate in a constructive manner and expressed the hope that Japan respects its promise to engage in true negotiations. The Union's desire to reach an agreement on a global package in Bonn has been duly reiterated in the two countries, but the Union is also ready for other options, notably an agreement on a more reduced number of elements, explained the Commissioner, which, according to her, is not contradictory with the aim of ratifying the Protocol in 2002, as wanted by the Union. Satisfied that the mission by the EU Troika managed to influence the national debate in Australia, she recognised that, in Bonn, the task would not be easy. What concerns us, is that the United States have promised not to block an agreement. There seems to be a problem over the term's definition, as the Americans are trying to convince their partners from the Umbrella group (Ed.: Canada, New Zealand, Australia and Norway) of the sound basis for their position, she said with irony. There is no negotiation without concessions, admitted Mrs Wallström. Though the concessions the Union will make will be on a give and take basis and will not cast doubt over the spirit and credibility of the Kyoto Protocol, she assured. Questioned over the nature of these concessions, the Commissioner mentioned flexibility over the methods to achieve the aims of the Protocol within precise time frames. We must not open Pandora's Box, she concluded when sweeping aside the idea of renegotiating the Protocol.