Dublin, 12/07/2001 (Agence Europe) - The "no" to the Treaty of Nice has opened up a debate in Ireland on the "future direction of the EU and Ireland's position in the Union", but, depending on the way the affair is dealt with in Dublin and in the EU, "it could have a very positive impact" obliging "the Irish to engage in a much needed debate on Europe, particularly on the political rather than the material dimension of the European project". This is what Brigid Laffan, Jean Monnet Professor for European Politics, University College Dublin, says in an article published by Jacques Delors' Notre Europe Foundation on its "What's New" site. At the same time, Ms. Laffan acknowledges the impact the impression of the "EU continuing its journey despite the outcome of a national referendum" will have on the debate in Ireland.
In the 7 June referendum, the absolute number of "nos" in fact dropped by 2.6% in relation to the referendum on the Amsterdam Treaty in 1998 and the number of "yeses" dropped by 18.1%, notes Ms. Laffan, adding: "In other words, this referendum was decided by those who did not vote because a significantly higher proportion of past "yes" voters than "no" voters stayed at home". According to her, it is undeniable that the most effective campaign was that of the partisans of the "no", comprising "on the right, conservative catholic forces and Sinn Fein, and on the left, the Green Party, pacifists and third world activists". Ms. Laffan also notes that the two "no" parties represented in the Irish Parliament, the Greens and Sinn Fein (political wing of the IRA), together only have 3 MPs out of 166. "This time, however, unlike previous referenda, it was supported by highly respected establishment figures, including a former Attorney General, who was concerned with the lack of parliamentary scrutiny of Ireland's EU policy and with the growing legislative role of the Union", Brigid Laffan acknowledges, stating in particular that, whereas the Prime Minister and Foreign Ministers took part in the public debate, other ministers "were notable by their low visibility". The "yes" supporters were successfully portrayed as part of the "tired establishment out of touch with the public", Laffan writes.
As for the subjects that dominated the campaign, she cites "sovereignty, democratic accountability, neutrality, enlargement and abortion", and, in more concrete terms, the loss of the automatic right to have a Commissioner (in a Europe of 27), the re-weighting of votes in favour of the large States and the introduction of qualified majority voting in enhanced cooperation, seen as "breaking the essential equality of States in the founding of the treaties", as well as the European reprimand of Dublin's economic policy. This discussion on "sovereignty and independence was merged with a concern for democratic accountability in the EU and the weakness of Irish scrutiny of EC-related secondary legislation", Brigid Laffan adds, also recalling that Irish participation in the future EU rapid reaction force was described as being an operation that would have led to the participation of Irish troops in "conflict situations as peacemakers rather than peacekeepers" (implication being, through force: Ed.). Here, Ms. Laffan does not spare the Irish Government, which she blames for its lack of credibility regarding belonging to the Partnership for Peace (offered by NATO to European countries not members of the Alliance: Ed.).
The Irish Government, the Professor notes, must now manage a "very difficult" situation as, even though it has repeated that it would respect the outcome of the referendum, "the determination of the other States to ratify the treaty was interpreted as pressure on Ireland to hold another referendum to secure the 'right' outcome". According to her, on Europe, the Irish Government is divided in three: a Prime Minister and a Foreign Minister following the country's traditional European line; the Finance Minister, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice who are "opposed to dramatic changes in the Union's institutional and constitutional framework; and "a Minister and Minister of State who are grandchildren of Eamon de Valera, the founder of Fianna Fail, the largest party in the State" and who resonate with the "rhetoric of traditional nationalism".
The Treaty of Nice "cannot come into force without ratification by Ireland", Ms. Laffa underpins. Then, recalling that the government had decided to set up a "Forum on Europe" this autumn to deal with "the Nice Treaty, the reasons for the "no vote, and the debate on the future of the Union", she adds that its composition, method of functioning and duration have not yet been decided, and that, in fact, the Forum "may serve to exacerbate conflict" on Europe. The most probable date for a new referendum will be early-autumn 2002 (after the elections that should be held in June), Ms. Laffa concludes, considering that the government could seek a protocol or a declaration "that would enable it to return to the Irish electorate with an altered question", and that this question would probably relate to the Union's security policy.