Brussels, 24/11/2000 (Agence Europe) - "We can forecast on average a real recovery, because the rates of growth forecast for the candidate countries are on average higher than what is expected for the European Union", announced Commissioner Solbes when presenting on Wednesday to the press the first exercise of economic forecasting undertaken by the European Commission for the accession candidate countries. The Commission foresees an annual rate of growth in the candidate countries to be on average higher than 4% between 2000 and 2002, against 3.5% in 2000 to 2% in 2000 for the EU 15. According to the Commission forecasts the candidate countries should for the first time in 2000 all post positive growth. On average, this growth will have doubled compared to 1999,were it was 2.2% for the candidates from Central and Eastern Europe, and -0.3% when including all the candidates. Growth should be especially strong in Estonia (from 6.2% in 2000 to 6.4% in 2002), in Turkey (from 6% in 2000 to 4.3% in 2002), as well as in Hungary (5.3% on average), or even in Poland (5% on average). Romania is at the back of the line with a growth that will according to the Commission forecasts rise from 1.4% in 2000 to 2.4% in 2002. These growth forecasts are explained both by a "favourable international environment" (strengthening of trade with the EU, better conjuncture in Russia and other CIS countries), and through an acceleration of internal demand (private investment and consumption).
Despite this growth, unemployment should continue to growth for the candidates from Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC) before falling in 2002: from 11.2% in 1999 to 12.1% in 2000, 12.1% in 2001 then 11.6% in 2002. If we also include Cyprus, Malta and Turkey, the rate goes from 10.5% in 1999 to 10.9% in 2000 to fall to 10.4% in 2001. The Commission explains this situation with the consequences of economic restructuring, the long-term improvement being due to the good economic growth expected.
The indicators are not all positive, underlined the Commission responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs by sending a "warning" to the candidate countries concerning: i) public deficits (that should on average stay lower and not fall rapidly to the EU level); ii) the trade balance deficit and the current trade balance that remains high in most of the candidate countries, though its is forecast that it will only fall a little"; iii) inflation, for which they only expect "moderate" progress".
The main figured tables relating to these details will be published in our weekly statistical supplement dated nest 5 December.