Short-term prospects for European Union agricultural markets in 2026 remain robust, despite persistent (and new) sources of uncertainty and continued pressure on producers’ margins from rising input costs, according to the report published on Monday 6 July by the European Commission.
EU cereals production for the 2026/27 marketing year is expected to reach 273.7 million tonnes, down 5.6% from 2025/26, but close to the five-year average. Oilseed production, however, is expected to increase by 3.1% to 32.7 million tonnes, driven mainly by sunflower, for which both area and yields are rising.
As for vegetable oils, the Commission anticipates a 4.4% increase in production, to 16.8 million tonnes, despite a sharp 42% drop in palm oil production.
Sugar production is estimated at 14.1 million tonnes, down 13% compared with the five-year average, owing to the decline in sugar beet area (-8%) and high production costs.
For olive oil, 2025/26 production is expected to reach 2.1 million tonnes, down 5% from 2024/25, but up 9% compared with the five-year average.
In the dairy sector, milk production is forecast to increase by 1.6% in 2026, thanks to high yields. The price of raw milk is expected to stabilise after the fall observed at the end of 2025.
As for meat products, beef production is projected to decrease by 2.2% in 2026, due to the structural decline in the cow herd. Prices remain high, despite a slight easing expected at the start of 2026. Beef exports are forecast to fall by 12%, while imports could rise by 12%, notably under the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, although there is a risk of Brazilian imports being suspended as early as September 2026 for failure to comply with health rules.
Pigmeat production is expected to remain stable (+0.3%), in a context of falling prices. Lastly, poultry production is forecast to increase by 1.4%, while imports could rise by 4%, notably from Brazil, Thailand and Ukraine.
More details: https://aeur.eu/f/mq4 (LC)