Buoyed by their new victory in the European elections held from 6 to 9 June, the European Christian Democrats are convinced that they are best placed to put pressure on the heads of state or government of the countries of the European Union to ensure that their lead candidate (‘Spitzenkandidat’), the German Ursula von der Leyen, is once again appointed President of the European Commission by the EU27, and then elected by an absolute majority of MEPs.
“It’s a great day for the ‘European People’s Party’” (EPP): “we have won the European elections” and we are “by far the largest party” to be represented in Parliament (see EUROPE 13427/1), declared Ms von der Leyen in the European Parliament’s hemicycle in Brussels.
At 2.47am on Monday 10 June, the most recent projections gave the EPP group 184 seats. This figure, noted a source inside the group, prevents any majority that would exclude the Christian Democrats.
Ms von der Leyen drew two lessons from these results: - there is “a majority in the centre in favour of a strong Europe”; - faced with the rise of extremes on both the right and the left, the parties at the centre have a strong “responsibility” to form a stable pro-European, pro-Ukraine and pro-Rule of law majority.
Reforming the tripartite platform
According to the outgoing President of the European Commission, “the first step” is to hold talks with the Socialists and Social Democrats (S&D) and the centre-right and liberal platform (Renew Europe), with whom “we have worked well for 5 years”. “Confident” in her ability to gather the necessary support, she did not, however, underestimate the workload ahead of her to secure a second mandate.
According to the latest available projections, a coalition of the three largest political groups in the European Parliament would obtain - at best - 403 votes, whereas an absolute majority of 361 MEPs is needed for Ms von der Leyen to be elected, if the European Council nominates her. But there is no guarantee that all these MEPs will support Ms von der Leyen, as she was rejected by part of her own camp at the EPP congress in Bucharest (see EUROPE 13366/1).
With the first phase of the Christian Democrat plan taking shape (see EUROPE 13422/9), EPP President Manfred Weber has also invited the Social Democrat and Liberal families to begin discussions which, according to the President of the Parliament, Roberta Metsola, will take place on Tuesday 11 June at the European Parliament’s political group conference. Calling on these families to “respect democracy”, the Bavarian MEP said that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron should “confirm” Ms von der Leyen as head of the Commission.
A kingmaker in 2019, Mr Macron suffered a heavy defeat at national level with the victory of the Rassemblement National, which forced him to dissolve the National Assembly and call snap elections. This weakness could reduce his desire to turn the tables, as he did 5 years ago when he rejected the candidacy of the EPP’s ‘Spitzenkandidat”, in this case Mr Weber.
Progressives for the inclusion of Greens
Speaking in turn in the Chamber, the heads of the list for the Party of European Socialists (PES), Nicolas Schmit from Luxembourg, and the European Green Party (EGP), Bas Eickhout from the Netherlands, congratulated Ms von der Leyen on her victory.
“We are open to cooperation with all democratic forces” and to negotiating a political agreement that will make Europe stronger and “more social”, said Mr Schmit. He repeated his refusal to work “with those who want to dismantle the Europe we have built over decades”, explicitly citing the European Conservatives (ECR) and the nationalists (ID). “We must respect the principle of the Spitzenkandidat”, stressed the vice-president of the S&D group, the Portuguese Pedro Marques, who, like Mr Schmit, is in favour of negotiations for a stable pro-European coalition including the Greens.
For the EGP’s co-’Spitzenkandidat’ Bas Eickhout, the stakes for democracy in Europe are so high that “a stable majority” is necessary and “the Greens are ready to take that responsibility”. Earlier, the Co-Chair of the Greens/EFA group in the European Parliament, Belgian Philippe Lamberts, had qualified the Greens’ support for a pro-European coalition, wishing first to see “the commitments” to the climate made by the future negotiators of such a coalition. In the global race for ‘net-zero’ technologies, “the biggest mistake would be to abandon the European Green Deal”, said Mr Eickhout, stressing that European industry is calling for visibility from the political world in order to plan the climate transition.
The loss of members in the ranks of the Greens/EFA group, particularly in France, could encourage the Greens to be more open to compromise.
In the absence of a centre-right ‘Spitzenkandidat’, Bulgaria’s Iskra Mihaylova said she was convinced that her political family would be “at the centre” of a future political majority that would defend fundamental values, the rule of law, competitiveness and security.
“We are ready to be at the helm of a pro-European coalition if our conditions and ambitions are met. A coalition of chaos involving the political extremes, which are hopelessly divided, leads to stagnation and paralysis”, declared the President of the Renew Europe group, Frenchwoman Valérie Hayer, in a press release.
She will be meeting with her troops in Brussels on Monday, in particular to discuss the issue of the Dutch VVD party, which has agreed to enter into a coalition with the far right in the Netherlands (see EUROPE 13427/3).
The far left and the conservatives are also leaving the door open
The Left’s ‘Spitzenkandidat’, Austria’s Walter Baier, also did not rule out the possibility of the radical left cooperating with a pro-European coalition. But it would be a big mistake to regard the election results as “carte blanche to continue with ‘business as usual’ and go back to fake politics of austerity”.
Finally, despite the rejection once again expressed by the Social Democrats, Assita Kanko of Belgium, speaking on behalf of the ECR group, did not rule out the possibility of cooperation with Ms von der Leyen. “We worked very well with her the past 5 years. If the programme is right for us, we can support it. There is no reason why we wouldn’t”, she said.
On Monday 17 June in Brussels, the EU heads of state or government will draw the first lessons from the results of the European elections, in particular the surge in sovereignist and even nationalist political forces. They could test several names for appointment to the top European posts - Presidency of the Commission, Presidency of the European Council and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs - with a view to a decision at the European Council on 27 and 28 June.
The former Portuguese Prime Minister, the Socialist António Costa, said on Sunday that Charles Michel’s successor at the European Council should come from the PES.
To see the results of the European elections and the latest projections of the future hemicycle of the European Parliament: https://aeur.eu/f/cl2 (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)