The Belgian Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo, still believes it is possible for the Member States to reach a unanimous agreement on the mid-term revision of the 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) at the extraordinary European summit to be held on Thursday 1 February in Brussels.
“Of course, the aim is to come to an agreement at 27”, he declared on Friday 5 January, at the end of the working visit by the College of Commissioners to launch the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU (see EUROPE 13322/1). In his view, there is no reason why the “Brussel doubts” often expressed should not give way to the “Brussel decisiveness" of the EU27.
Urging a decision on the future ‘Ukraine Facility’, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, indicated that the EU institution was in the process of preparing “options for operational solutions”. It will then be up to the Belgian Presidency to put the solution adopted by the European Council into legislative form, both in the EU Council and with the European Parliament. However, Ms Von der Leyen did not go into the details of these solutions, saying only that the payment, at the end of December, of the last tranche of Macro-Financial Assistance to Ukraine for 2023 leaves a little time to finalise future assistance (see EUROPE 13319/39).
At the European Council in mid-December, 26 EU leaders backed the latest proposal for a budget increase put forward by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel (see EUROPE 13315/1). Hungary had rejected any further macro-financial assistance to Ukraine of up to €50 billion until 2027.
The Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU will also have a certain role to play in facilitating discussions at a lower political level, in particular at the level of the EU ‘General Affairs’ Council and the Member States’ ambassadors to the EU, two bodies responsible for preparing the meetings of the European Council.
The current MFF ceiling, for the period 2021-2027, is set at €1,085.3 billion in commitment appropriations (at 2018 prices).
For the previous period, from 2014 to 2020, the European Union was allocated €960 billion (at 2011 prices) before undergoing a mid-term review in 2017, injecting additional financial support for migration, jobs and growth to the tune of €6.01 billion.
The agreement had been reached at the level of European finance ministers in November 2016, after the lifting of a reservation by Italy (see EUROPE 11668/1).
According to the fourth negotiating box for revising the MFF submitted by Mr Michel, the budget increase envisaged is €31.6 billion.
The 26 members will therefore be trying to convince Mr Orbán of the importance of continuing to support Ukraine, which is in the throes of military aggression from Russia, while the European Commission is still waiting for internal reforms from Budapest aimed at fully re-establishing the Rule of law. Some €20 billion of European and cohesion funds are still frozen.
Of the €10.2 billion officially released in December on the eve of the European summit (see EUROPE 13313/9), €450 million had already been paid to Hungary on 2 January, according to the Commission. It is responsible for reimbursing the invoices sent by the Member States.
The payment of more substantial sums to Hungary could help to change Hungary’s position with a view to reaching an EU27 agreement, as has been the case to date. However, if Hungary maintains its veto, a 26 member solution will have to be considered. It could be decided to extend the macrofinancial assistance model (€18 billion in loans) established for 2023, with the 26 Member States taking over Hungary’s share of the public guarantee based on the EU budget. Other solutions exist, such as bilateral loans, which are more costly for each of the Member States.
In addition, Ms von der Leyen noted that an agreement on the mid-term review of the MFF would enable the EU to strengthen certain political priorities in areas such as migration policy and competitiveness. (Original version in French by Bernard Denuit and Mathieu Bion)