Ahead of the conclusion of the negotiations scheduled for the morning of Tuesday 12 December in Dubai, the latest version of the text of the final COP28 agreement, unveiled on Monday 11 December, has provoked a wave of negative reactions. The criticisms, including those from the European Union, mainly concern the phase-out of fossil fuels.
“The text as it currently stands is disappointing”, said Wopke Hoekstra, European Commissioner for Climate Action. “It’s not adequate to address the problem we are here to tackle. The science is clear: we need to phase out fossil fuels”, he said via the X social network.
This next to last text was drawn up under the leadership of the Emirati President of COP28 and head of the national oil company, Sultan Al-Jaber, who promised an “historic” agreement, 8 years after the Paris Agreement, which set a limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius on global warming.
No mention of “phasing out” fossil fuels
While it reiterates, among other things, the need to triple installed renewable energy capacity and double the global average annual rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030, it does not mention a specific target for fossil fuel phase-out, other than a “reduction in both fossil fuel consumption and production in a fair, orderly and equitable way, so as to achieve the goal of net zero emissions by, before or around 2050, as recommended by science”.
A minority made up of Saudi Arabia, Iraq and some allies of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are still opposed to any move away from or reduction in fossil fuels.
Yet pressure is mounting from many governments and NGOs to commit to the end of the fossil fuel era and include it in the final text. The EU is also taking a stance in favour of the beginning of the end of these energies (see EUROPE 13308/6), as pointed out by MEP Jutta Paulus (Greens/EFA, German), a member of the European Parliament delegation to COP28.
“The EU must stay the course and not leave any doors open to fossil fuels when it calls for an end to coal, oil and gas”, she said. “In all likelihood, the next 48 hours will decide whether the Dubai climate summit ends in a fiasco for fossil fuels or goes down in history as the beginning of the era of renewable energies”.
Emission reduction and elimination technologies raise questions
The latest version of the conclusions also call for “accelerating zero and low emissions technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies, including such as carbon capture and utilisation and storage, and low carbon hydrogen production”.
However, the technologies for reducing and eliminating emissions are strongly criticised by some NGOs, as “the call for the gradual elimination of fossil fuels that cannot be mitigated rather than the complete elimination of all fossil fuels leaves loopholes for the continued use of fossil fuels, if certain measures are taken to reduce the intensity of their greenhouse gas emissions”, as explained by the NGO network CAN Europe.
In addition, there is currently no clear definition of reduction and the technologies promoted for reduction, such as carbon capture and storage, have not yet been proven on the scale needed to have a significant impact.
Some observers remain sceptical about the negotiators’ ability to reach an agreement on Tuesday 12 at 11am, as set by Sultan Al-Jaber. In fact, in the 28 years of the COP’s existence, negotiations have rarely been concluded on schedule. (Original version in French by Nithya Paquiry and Pauline Denys)