Les loups aiment la brume
The title of this essay, the translation into French of a Turkish proverb (meaning ‘the wolf loves the fog’), refers to predators who take advantage of a lack of visibility and ambient confusion to lurk, move forward and act. The work offers up a map of ultra-nationalist, Islamist and criminal networks that overlap and permeate each other throughout Europe, supporting the activities of the Turkish intelligence services on the soil of the old European democracies that have been weakened by individualism and communitarianism. Journalists Laure Marchand and Guillaume Perrier unravel the spider’s web which serves “underground Turkish activism” in a Europe that is permanently subjected to the multiple layers of blackmail of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
“In his stand-off with the Europeans, Erdoğan has some serious arguments on his side. He is now the migratory gatekeeper, as he controls two of the main routes of access to European soil, the Greek border, but also the Libyan coast. He has no hesitation in making use of the presence of 3.5 million Syrians, plus several hundred thousand Afghans, Iranians and nationals of the African continent on his territory to create the veiled threat of a migratory submersion that paralyses the European executives with fear”, the authors stress, adding that “Turkey was also able to play its card in the fight against jihadist terrorism from 2015. It sold its cooperation and its intelligence, allowed the threat to become established, all the while allowing the European capitals to believe that it was fighting the jihadi groups without any kind of agenda. In return, multiple arrests in Kurdish neighbourhoods in Europe. And a deafening silence around Turkish espionage and infiltration operations across the continent. Acts of intimidation, threats or even targeted murders – like those of three Kurdish militants in Paris in 2013 – have gone unpunished. In some cases, they have been covered up by European judicial and police systems, to avoid calling attention to Erdoğan. In his mind, that kind of admission of weakness is always an invitation to him to push home his advantage” (our translation throughout).
“The presence of nearly five million Turks gives Erdoğan enormous leverage”, the authors point out, going on to stress that “expatriates were given voting rights in 2014 and now constitute a solid reservoir of votes in the elections. The Turks of Europe, who are more conservative and nationalistic than the average and less concerned by the violent upheavals in their country of origin, voted massively for the Reis and his AKP party (…) and its ultra-nationalistic ally, the MHP (…). With this pro-Islamic/nationalist legion gathered around a few purpose-built organisations, Erdoğan has the benefit of an instrument of influence or even, if necessary, of destabilisation. Through these political associations, he guides and creates frameworks for the ‘Euro-Turks’, he polarises and divides European societies, he encourages entryism in the institutions, spies on and threatens all dissenting voices, even though there are many of these in the Turkish diaspora. And his ambition goes far beyond the little Turkey of Europe. The Sultan sees himself as a Caliph and spokesperson for the Muslim communities, presented as the perpetual victims of Western Islamophobia”.
“To realise his dreams of conquest and domination, Erdoğan has also raised an army of Islamist mercenaries, most of them Syrian. A horde of auxiliaries with neither faith nor law, worthy descendants of the Ottoman bashi-bazouks or bands of criminals who spread terror in the Anatolian provinces at the end of the Empire”, the authors write, explaining: “trained by SADAT, a private military company founded by a small group of Turkish Islamic officers in 2012, these mercenaries now constitute an informal army, an ‘Islamic Wagner’. In this way, several thousand Syrians were sent to Libya in 2019 to defend the transitional government of Tripoli from the advances of rebels of Field Marshal Haftar. Fighters were also sent in 2020 to help Azerbaijan to conquer the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh occupied by Armenia”.
In a section that has the flavour of a legal investigation, Marchand and Perrier examine the extremist ‘Grey Wolves’ movement affiliated to the MHP; the “Osmanen Germania” motorcycle gang, which was dissolved in Germany over its involvement in cases of extortion, trafficking in weapons and drugs; clandestine operations (kidnappings and murders of opponents, amongst other things) orchestrated by the Turkish intelligence service, the MIT, the real “state within the state” as the authors put it, employing nearly 8000 civil servants; the involvement of consular agents and diplomats or even imams under the coordination of the Diyanet. So many actors involved in local or cross-border activities, taking the reader on a tour of France, Belgium and Germany, but also Austria, Sweden, the Balkans and as far as Africa.
“With some 18,500 militants, dozens of umbrella associations and a quasi-military organisation, the Grey Wolves are the largest far-right group in Germany, ahead of the German neo-Nazi movement”, the authors report. “In fact, they find particularly fertile ground there”, according to Bundestag member Sevim Dagdelen (Die Linke), who believes that Germany will not do anything that could compromise its partnership with Erdoğan. The European seat of the extremist movement, the European edition of its newspaper ‘Türkiye’ and its publishers are, moreover, located in Frankfurt.
“Cradled by the nationalism of the homeland, there are legions of Erdoğan’s self-proclaimed soldiers in Belgium. In this country, the Turkish diaspora has the significant characteristic of mostly coming from the same small city in Anatolia, Emirdag “, the authors write, going on to stress that it was in Belgium that the presidentialisation of the Erdoğan regime won the highest score in the whole of Europe and the constitutional referendum of 2017. They also reiterate that the former mayor of Saint-Josse federal MP, Émir Kir, ended up being thrown out of the (French-speaking) Socialist party due to his “evident links to the Turkish far right”. “His political party turned a blind eye for a long time out of electoral considerations”, Marchand and Perrier point out acerbically, before observing that the CDH also had to drop Schaerbeek councillor and Brussels MP Mahinur Özdemir after her refusal to recognise the Armenian genocide. Since 2020, she has been Turkey’s ambassador to Algeria.
“In power since 2003, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is these days an isolated autocrat. His governance is marked by an increasingly Kafka-esque repression and the tanking economy. The fights between the clans to control the state apparatus are stepping up” amid what the authors identify as “the atmosphere of the end of an era”. They conclude that the “MIT, the armed branch of the Palace, is central to Turkey’s Europe strategy. In the run-up to the next presidential and general elections in spring 2023, its role should not be denied. The aim is to allow Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to stay in power at all costs. In Stockholm, Berlin, Brussels and Paris, other secret actions against the opponents of the Reis, operations of influence and political pressure may be stepped up. And the European countries have not always found the right way to respond to this threat”. (Olivier Jehin)
Laure Marchand, Guillaume Perrier. Les loups aiment la brume – Enquête sur les opérations clandestines de la Turquie en Europe (available in French only). Grasset. ISBN: 978-2-2468-2769-6. 281 pages. €20,90
La guerre qu’on ne voit pas venir
With war raging in Ukraine, the member of the European Parliament and chair of the sub- committee on ‘Security and Defence”, Nathalie Loiseau (Renew Europe), deals in her book with the other war that is affecting Europe: the war of disinformation, cyber-attacks and foreign interference. Even the cover is intriguing: “cyber-attacks, real trolls, false media: and you think you are living in peace” (our translation throughout). Over 560 pages, the author details and documents the threats facing democracies, some on the basis of her personal experience during her career as a diplomat and then an MEP.
Loiseau’s starting principle is that “authoritarian and unfriendly powers are increasingly using our space of liberty as a playground, in the hope of dividing and weakening us”. She sets out Russian tactics and techniques – including those used in and on Ukraine – and those of China and Turkey, but also those of “radical religious movements” and certain democracies, including the United States, as “disinformation and interference are not the preserve of authoritarian regimes alone”.
The author describes specific cases, such as the American elections and the situation in France. “We know now that our country is the target of choice for Russian interventions”, the French MEP stresses, referring to the presidential elections of 2017. However, she goes on to argue, Turkey is not far behind. It “unhesitatingly interferes in French politics” and “brandishes accusations of ‘Islamophobia’ against France whenever it sees fit”. Germany is being targeted by both Turkey and Russia, according to Loiseau. As for the Italian political classes, they are “easy pickings” for Chinese operations of influence, according to a study quoted in the book, and the United Kingdom is also reported to be affected by Chinese interference. Nobody seems to have been spared, not the European institutions of the Baltic states, the Western Balkans or Africa, “a fertile ground for foreign interference”, and Taiwan, which has set numerous measures in place to tackle disinformation.
“Three-quarters of the book is depressing and the rest would make an ideal Christmas present”, says Loiseau. The last part of the volume suggests areas for work and reflection. “It is out of the question to destroy our democratic values whilst trying to protect them”, she says, before asking: “should our efforts be based on prevention (…) or the response, by focusing on how to tackle malevolent manipulation campaigns?” As well as the legislative aspect and political measures, the MEP highlights the vital role of civil society and stresses the need to breathe new life into citizens’ involvement in public decisions so as to avoid allowing “entire swathes of society to be immobilised by distrust and fall victim to manipulations”.
Despite the bleak “panorama sketched by this book: interference everywhere, responses nowhere or almost nowhere”, Loiseau refuses to give up the fight, stressing that “we must fight, fight on, protect our democracies from those attacking them, not allow them to get away with it, respond (…). Everywhere, always”. (Camille-Cerise Gessant)
Nathalie Loiseau. La guerre qu’on ne veut pas voir (available in French only). Éditions de l’Observatoire. ISBN: 979-1-0329-2517-1. 560 pages. €23,00
Géopolitique du climat
François Gemenne, the principal author of the IPCC, sets out in this work to explain and clarify “how climate change affects the relationships between states and how these affect the mechanisms of governments that are in place now or are still to be created”(our translation throughout).
“The question of climate changes often boils down to its environmental dimension and efforts that everybody must make to reduce their consumption of fossil energies. But in reality, climate change is above all a political issue. An issue that affects the balance of power, the models of development, our modes of production and consumption. But it also affects questions of migration, security and public health”, the author argues, going on to examine all of these subjects and the challenges of justice and fairness that are intrinsically linked to them.
“Since 2008, 25 million people on average have been displaced every year by disasters, the vast majority of which are disasters of a hydro-climatic nature”, Gemenne, points out, stressing that international migration is the exception rather than the rule. “When facing the degradation of their environment, migrants tend to move a short distance, without going far away from their original habitat”, he explains, adding that “the predictions doing the rounds, forecasting hundreds of millions of new migrants by 2050 or 2100, have almost no scientific foundation and simply reflect the number of people living in the regions that are most exposed to the effects of climate change and, critically, rising water levels: deltaic and coastal regions, small island states, etc.”.
“The nature of the climate as a global public good brings with it the need for international cooperation, which can be compromised by the presence of ‘stowaways’, taking advantage of the efforts of the rest with making a contribution themselves. But this reality also gives enormous weight to the largest emitters in the negotiations: they know that their coming on board with the cooperation is absolutely critical, that it would be doomed to failure without them. Today, this international cooperation is symbolised by negotiations on the climate, which culminate in their annual conference organised by the United Nations – the COPs. But these conferences are only the most visible – and sometimes discouraging – element of international cooperation”, the author explains.
In his analysis of these negotiations, Gemenne flags up the endogamy of the negotiators. Over time, the negotiations have become extremely technical, understood by only a few dozen seasoned negotiators, the author explains, also pointing out that “this technicality is also maintained by the negotiators themselves, as many of them jealously guard their experience and expertise”. He adds that “the result is a certain form of dependence on the code of negotiation, its pace and its calendar. There is possibly here a kind of disturbing truth: by trying to lock themselves in to the negotiations and their codes, the negotiators also stop themselves from getting out. In many regards, the negotiation is also a prison that the negotiators themselves have built over the course of the COP meetings and who are now therefore suffering from a schism of reality”.
“Since the ink dried on the Paris Agreement, the only notable inflection in the curve of global emissions of greenhouse gases was caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. This in itself is a terrible admission of failure: it is as if the Paris Agreement had done no good”, writes Gemenne, adding that “in the absence of resolute action against climate change, the governments are reduced to meeting every year to renew increasingly ambitious promises. If these promises cannot be converted into effective action, temperatures will continue to rise, making the possibility of meeting the Paris objectives more hypothetical with every day that passes”.
“All the major political challenges of the 21st century, in the field of development, migration, agriculture, public health, security and justice, must be considered in the light of climate change, as a necessary matrix of these challenges”, Gemenne, goes on to stress, before concluding that “a new geopolitics must be invented, in which the Earth is the subject, rather than the object, of policies: a policy of the Earth”. (OJ)
François Gemenne. Géopolitique du climat – Les relations internationales dans un monde en surchauffe (available in French only). Armand Colin. ISBN: 978-2-2006-3242-7. 208 pages. €23,90