On Friday 7 January, the European Commission published the results of its December 2021 economic survey. The indicators show a decrease between the beginning and the end of 2021 in the EU and in the euro area, but remain historically high compared to the years before the health crisis. For example, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) fell by 2.1 points in the EU and 2.3 points in the euro area over the year. Similarly, the Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) also decreased by 1.4 points in the EU and by 1.6 points in the euro area.
According to the European Commission, the decline in the December ESI was due to a sharp fall in confidence in the services sector and, to a lesser extent, in retail trade and consumer confidence. Only Poland saw its ESI increase (+0.6 points), while the Netherlands (-4.1), Germany (-2.8), France (-2.1), Italy (-1.6) and Spain (-0.8) did not.
In contrast, confidence has improved in industry and construction. With 0.6 points more, the level of confidence in the industry reached its highest level ever recorded, thanks to the unprecedented appraisals of overall order books and a renewed uptick in the scarcity assessment of the stocks of finished products. Similarly, confidence in the construction sector improved slightly again (+0.9), equalling its highest reading on record of September 2018.
The decline in the Employment Expectations Indicator (-1.6 points) was solely due to deteriorating employment plans in services in contrast to the industry, retail trade and construction sectors.
Finally, the European Commission’s Economic Uncertainty Indicator (EUI) increased in December (+1.1 points), probably in connection with the emergence of the Omicron variant. (Original version in French by Anne Damiani)