The current climate commitments of states by 2030 are expected to push the planet towards warming by about 2.7°C by the end of the century, well above the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 2°C with a target of 1.5°C, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warned on Tuesday 26 October, in its annual Climate Action Review.
“If the NDCs [nationally determined contributions] and current commitments are met by 2030 and climate action continues at the same level of ambition thereafter, warming this century will be kept to 2.7°C with only a one in three chance (range: 2.2-3.2°C)”, said Joeri Rogelj, lead author of the report.
Comparing current greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels with those needed to limit warming to 1.5 or 2°C, the report reveals that current NDCs - including new and updated NDCs - would only reduce projected emissions by 7.5% by 2030, compared to previous commitments.
In terms of longer-term pledges, the UNEP notes that 49 countries plus the European Union have now committed to achieving net zero emissions.
According to the report, these commitments could mitigate the temperature increase to 2.2°C, provided they are fully implemented. However, the UNEP says that pledges for carbon neutrality are still “vague, incomplete in many cases, and inconsistent with most 2030 NDCs”.
It also reminds us that global emissions should be reduced by 55% by 2030 to have a chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
“We have eight years (...) to make the plans, put in place the policies, implement them and ultimately deliver the cuts”, warned UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
To access the report: https://bit.ly/3vXm576 (Damien Genicot)