The agenda of the EU foreign ministers, who meet in Brussels on Monday 21 September, will be very full. In addition to quick points, notably on Turkey, Russia and Lebanon, ministers will discuss the situation in Libya, Belarus, relations with the African Union and the EU’s southern neighbourhood.
Libya. The EU Council will discuss the latest developments in Libya following the announcements made on 21 August with a view to ending the crisis (see EUROPE 12544/10) and the visit to the country by the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, on1 September (see EUROPE 12551/18).
Ministers are expected in particular to discuss ways to provide political support for change on the ground and consider concrete measures to support the efforts of the UN and in particular UNSMIL. According to a diplomatic source, the discussion will also be an opportunity to see what the member states wish to do, particularly on the monitoring of the ceasefire if the UN were to ask for support on this point, and to return to the EUNAVFOR Med Irini operation.
Ministers are also expected to agree on the lifting of sanctions against the Speaker of the internationally recognised House of Representatives of Tobruk, Aguila Saleh, who has been sanctioned since 1 April 2016 for obstructing the political process (see EUROPE 11522/17). However, since this summer, Mr Saleh has been at the forefront of efforts to relaunch a political process.
Conversely, the EU Council is expected to decide to sanction entities and individuals who have violated the arms embargo on Libya.
Belarus. After an informal breakfast meeting with political opponent Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Ministers are expected to take stock of the political situation in Belarus, the OSCE’s mediation attempts and how the EU could further assist the population. The review of relations between the EU and Belarus, also a member of the Eastern Partnership, could also be addressed.
The new situation has to be taken into account while supporting the people and ensuring that the country remains in the Eastern Partnership and the cooperation that this represents, so that Minsk does not go elsewhere, summed up one diplomatic source.
And although, as early as 14 August, Europeans promised the adoption of sanctions against those responsible for electoral fraud, repression and violence in the country, this adoption was still not certain for the EU Council on Friday evening. On Friday evening, the EU ambassadors had still not given their political agreement. The current list is said to include some 40 names, according to several diplomatic sources.
While the very idea of imposing restrictive measures did not pose a problem, one delegation – Cyprus – had not agreed to their adoption, linking it to that of measures against Turkey because of its continued illegal drilling in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
“There are links on the part of some delegations with regard to commitments made at previous meetings, in particular the meeting in Gymnich”, a European source said.
Turkey. The situation with Turkey is complex. This week, the latter took a step towards appeasement by not renewing its Navtex for the Greek EEZ, but by continuing its drilling in the Cyprus EEZ.
“Some, including those most involved in mediation and committed to relations with Turkey, seem to feel that additional sanctions related to activities in the exclusive economic zone are not appropriate at this time”, a European source explained. This would include Germany, in particular.
The source added that the week should be seen as a dynamic week, with the ‘Foreign Affairs’ Council and then the European Council. “Hopefully, solutions can be found on the different issues”, it added.
Postponement of the AU/EU Summit to 2021. Ministers will be briefed on the state of preparation of the European Union/African Union ministerial meeting scheduled for 28 September, with a view to the AU/EU summit scheduled for the autumn, with a view to agreeing on the common priorities for a strengthened strategic partnership (see EUROPE 12558/19, 12518/15).
In fact, in all likelihood, this summit, originally scheduled for 28 and 29 October, will be postponed to next year because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
While the European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM) announced on 15 September that it would be postponed to 2021, other sources have so far been reluctant to confirm this.
“The calendar has been turned upside down because of Covid-19. There is uncertainty everywhere, the summit will probably be postponed” to 2021, said a European source on Friday, for whom “the formalisation of the calendar is under consideration”. There is also uncertainty as to whether the ministerial meeting will be held.
Negotiation of the post-Cotonou agreement. In the framework of the exchange on Africa, ministers will be briefly briefed on the state of play of the negotiations between the EU and the Organisation of ACP States (OACPS) on the post-Cotonou agreement. The Commissioner for International Partnerships, Jutta Urpilainen, had hoped for a political agreement before the summer break (see EUROPE 12515/16, 12506/9).
Southern neighbourhood. Finally, over lunch, ministers will discuss the future partnership with the southern neighbourhood, as the EU plans its future financial assistance and the Barcelona Process celebrates its 25th anniversary.
According to one source, the aim is to revive the dynamics of relations, after several years in which debates have focused heavily on the stability of the region and less on subjects that bring the two shores of the Mediterranean together, such as the environment, climate change or regional integration.
Furthermore, the EU Council will soon return to the consequences of the poisoning of Russian political opponent Alexei Navalny on EU/Russia relations. These are expected to be discussed further in October.
Lebanon could also be the subject of a short discussion, following the explosion in Beirut on 4 August and while the country is still awaiting the formation of a government. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant and Aminata Niang)