At this stage of the negotiations and without a change in the UK's position, “a trade agreement is highly unlikely”.
This is the conclusion, once again not very optimistic, drawn up on Thursday 23 July in London by the EU negotiator, Michel Barnier, at the end of a new round of negotiations with his counterpart, David Frost.
This was a final, more formal round of discussions, which may have addressed different issues, such as transport or social security, but which has not yet produced the results hoped for by the EU negotiator, in particular on a level playing field and fisheries, which Michel Barnier presented as the two main obstacles to an agreement.
For his part, David Frost said in a statement that it is “unfortunately clear that we will not reach in July the ‘early understanding on the principles underlying any agreement’ that was set as an aim at the High Level Meeting on 15 June” (see EUROPE 12506/6).
Both sides, as Michel Barnier said at a press conference from London, have certainly made slight progress in certain areas, such as governance, for example. London would have taken on board the idea that the EU wants a simplified global agreement rather than a multitude of sectoral agreements.
On goods, the coordination of social security schemes, the EU negotiator also mentioned progress, such as on EU programmes or on trade in goods and commodities, but on the essentials, fair competition and fisheries, the two parties are still very far from an agreement. And without strong fisheries provisions or a level playing field, an agreement with London is not an option, as the EU has been saying all along. David Frost also acknowledged “considerable gaps” on both of these issues.
“We continue to look for a deal with, at its core, a free trade agreement similar to the one the EU already has with Canada – that is, an agreement based on existing precedents. We remain unclear why this is so difficult for the EU, but we will continue to negotiate with this in mind”, David Frost reacted.
“There is an objective risk of ‘no deal’”, said the EU negotiator, who still wants to believe that, despite everything, an agreement remains possible. David Frost agrees, stressing that an agreement can be “reached in September”.
“Despite all the difficulties, on the basis of the work we have done in July, my assessment is that agreement can still be reached in September, and that we should continue to negotiate with this aim in mind”, writes David Frost.
On fisheries, Michel Barnier was in any case more negative than in previous speeches. While the EU has orally tried to make overtures on this issue, the British are asking for “a near total exclusion of EU fishing vessels from UK waters, this is unacceptable”. The EU will not be able to allow the “partial destruction of the European fishing industry”, he said.
On the level playing field, the UK Government has also failed to show how it intends to meet “our standards”, Mr Barnier judging on this point, particularly on State Aid, that “there has been zero progress”. This is “all the more worrying” because London has given no “visibility” on its intention on its future domestic subsidy control system and regime.
The negotiator also said that he had heard London's request that any recourse to the EU Court of Justice should disappear in the future relationship. This will therefore imply “a reduced scope for cooperation”, said Mr Barnier, particularly on police and judicial cooperation where the Court of Justice intervenes on the protection of citizens' rights.
The two sides will meet again in London next week for further discussions in a restricted format. Michel Barnier did not seem to rule out the possibility that these exchanges could be broader than expected, but the next formal round of discussions covering all areas of the agreement remains set for 17 August.
The EU negotiator rightly warned that the two sides have very little time left -”just a few weeks” - to reach this agreement and avoid the inevitable “friction” that will otherwise occur on 1 January, 2021, between “quotas and tariffs”. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)