The Conservative Party’s election victory guarantees the UK will exit the EU on 31 January. But it promises little else.
“Get Brexit done”, UK prime minister Boris Johnson repeated ad nauseam during the general election. And with his party set to take 364 seats (326 are needed for a majority), Brexit will be a done deal. “Brexit will now happen”, said former ALDE leader and parliament Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt. But he added the EU must focus on “building a new close, fair and lasting partnership with Britain”.
Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar, however, remains cautious. “The next step is to ratify the withdrawal agreement which guarantees no hard border between North and South, guarantees the protection of the common travel area”, he told reporters in Brussels. Mr Johnson has promised to hold a vote on the agreement in the month of December, but with only one week to go before Christmas, the timing is tight.
“We expect, as soon as possible, a vote by the British Parliament”, said European Council president Charles Michel. “It’s important to have clarity, as soon as possible”. But it’s the next phase of talks EU leaders are really prepping for. “We will move forward with our separation now. We now have 11 months to hash out a deal. It’s a very short time”, Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said on Thursday night.
The problem for EU leaders is whether or not they can trust Mr Johnson to negotiate in good faith. He has already indicated he will not be abiding by any level playing field clauses in a future trade deal, which makes a swift agreement difficult. They will also be looking to see how the UK prime minister handles relations with the US. President Donald Trump issued warm congratulations to Mr Johnson on Twitter, calling it a “great WIN”. “Britain and the United States will now be free to strike a massive new Trade Deal after BREXIT. This deal has the potential to be far bigger and more lucrative than any deal that could be made with the E.U. Celebrate Boris!” Mr Trump tweeted.
According to Eurasia group analyst Mujtaba Rahman, the expectation is that Mr Johnson will not extend the transition period beyond December 2020 - a decision he will have to make by June next year. That means the risk of a “cliff edge” Brexit in January 2021 is still very real. (Sarah Collins)