About three-quarters of the 184 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Climate Agreement are insufficient to stop the acceleration of climate change in the next 10 years, but the EU and some countries are reportedly exceptions, according to a study published on Tuesday 5 November.
This study, entitled ‘The Truth behind the Climate Pledges’ and written by IPCC scientists, postulates that, to slow global warming, a 50% reduction in global emissions is needed by 2030.
Only 36 NDCs are considered sufficient, as they aim to reduce emissions by at least 40% by 2030. This is the case for the EU, the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases (9%) and CO2 (10%). Some of its Member States are among the richest economies in the world and some countries are still dependent on fossil fuels for electricity and heat production: the largest CO2 emitters in 2017 were Germany (22%), the United Kingdom (10.7%), Italy (10%), Poland (9.6%) and France (9.3%).
The study considers that the binding legislative measures adopted by the EU, if implemented, should lead to a 58% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990.
The reduction offered by China, the largest emitter (26.8% of global emissions) and India (7%) is considered insufficient. The United States (a 26-28% reduction by 2025) is in limbo. Russia has not yet submitted an NDC.
152 other commitments come from countries that together account for 32.5% of global emissions. Of these, 127 (nearly 70%) have submitted conditional plans to reduce their emissions. These plans are conditional on obtaining technical assistance and financing ($100 billion per year by 2020 and beyond, pledged by industrialised countries).
But out of 38 countries that have made their plan 100% dependent on international aid, 5 are high-income countries (the Bahamas, Barbados, Oman, Saint Kitts and Nevis and the Seychelles).
To consult the study: http://bit.ly/2rgOWpB (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)