As the results of the European elections were being refined (see EUROPE 12264/1), no clear political majority emerged on Monday 27 May in the new European Parliament to elect, on the basis of a forthcoming proposal from the European Council, the political personality able to chair the European Commission (see EUROPE 12263/2).
At least three political groups will be needed to endorse the political personality who will chair the post-Juncker European Commission, namely the Christian Democratic (EPP), Social Democratic (S&D) and Liberal (ALDE&R) groups. A majority of the EPP, S&D and Greens/EFA groups is even numerically possible.
"The field is very, very open, since the coalition will have to include at least three parties and no natural leadership emerges given the small gap between the S&D and the EPP", noted this good connoisseur of the European arcana. According to him, "the climate challenge [being] Europe's first challenge", the Greens must participate in building a political majority in the European Parliament.
But the formation of a progressive alliance excluding Christian Democrats, which Liberals and Social Democrats are calling for around their respective top candidates, will be difficult to achieve. According to projections published Monday afternoon, this alliance would receive 363 votes (146 S&D elected representatives + 109 ALDE&R elected representatives + 69 Greens/EFA elected representatives + 39 GUE/NGL elected representatives), a deficit of 13 votes to achieve the absolute majority of 376 MEPs in a 751-seat hemicycle.
Nevertheless, negotiations on the content of a programme are well under way in an attempt to build such an alliance.
On Monday evening, French President Emmanuel Macron, including the La République en marche! (LREM) will be the largest contingent of the ALDE&R group, dined with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, whose Socialist Party won the European elections in Spain with flying colours. Madrid would claim the post of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
The European People's Party (EPP) candidate, Manfred Weber of Germany, "does not seem to us to represent the balance of the broad coalition we want to form" around "major priorities", including the fight against climate change, Pascal Canfin, number 2 on the LREM list, insisted during an interview with the French daily La Croix.
The GUE/NGL Group is ready to discuss a programme that includes progressive measures such as the defence of workers' rights, gender equality, and the rejection of the militarisation of the EU.
If Parliament's main pro-European political forces fail to agree on a name at this stage, they could send a message to the European Council on the importance of keeping the Spitzenkandidaten process alive, warning that it will only decide on a person who has been a leading candidate in the European elections, as it had done in 2014.
The meeting of the Conference of Presidents of Political Groups on Tuesday morning will be important in this respect. It was prepared at technical level on Monday evening and a political meeting could be held on Tuesday before the Conference of Presidents.
Mr Weber, who is the chairman of the EPP group, reportedly tried to bring his counterparts together, but Liberal, Belgian Guy Verhofstadt, and Social Democratic, German Udo Bullmann, leaders refused to extend a hand, according to one source.
The Twenty-eight will recall their prerogatives
On Tuesday evening, the Heads of State or Government will stress that they have control over the appointment process for the main European functions to be filled by the end of 2019: the Presidencies of the European Council, the Commission, the ECB and the post of High Representative of the EU.
At an informal dinner, they will focus their attention on analysing the results of the European elections and the balance of power that is being created, ruling out, if possible, any discussion on Brexit after the announcement of the resignation of British Prime Minister Theresa May (see EUROPE 12262/1), and on the tensions between Cyprus and Turkey.
The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, should be responsible for conducting consultations with his counterparts as well as with the European Parliament. No formal contact with Parliament's representatives is planned before the summit, although Mr Tusk, a member of the EPP, will be present on Tuesday afternoon at the preparatory summit of the Christian Democratic family.
Since Sibiu, the former Polish Prime Minister has not changed his mind. He wishes to move quickly by inviting the European Council to take, at the end of June, a decision in a package on the appointments that will soon be vacant in order to facilitate the implementation of the new institutional cycle (see EUROPE 12251/2).
If necessary, Mr Tusk, who will meet bilaterally with German Chancellor Mrs Merkel and then with French President Emmanuel Macron before the summit, is ready to proceed to a vote. Since the Lisbon Treaty, the reinforced qualified majority rule has applied. Any nomination must have the support of both Member States representing 65% of the European population and 72% of the number of Member States, i.e. 21 countries.
The position of the British will be important in this regard, with their willingness or unwillingness to participate in appointments varying the thresholds set. Until Brexit is implemented, the United Kingdom remains a fully-fledged Member State and is entitled to take part in decisions.
Not running for a second term, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, the first incarnation of the Spitzenkandidaten process, will also attend the dinner for European leaders. "It is no secret that Mr Juncker and the College of Commissioners have consistently defended a system that has improved European democracy", said the spokesman for the European institution. (Original in French by Mathieu Bion and editorial staff)