Heads of State or Government will meet on Wednesday 10 April, confirmed European Council President Donald Tusk on Friday, 29 March to prepare the response of the Twenty-Seven after the third rejection by British MPs of the withdrawal agreement agreed upon by the British government and the European Union.
By 344 votes against (including 34 Conservative Party members) to 286, the House of Commons rejected Friday, the day originally set aside for Brexit, the British government's motion asking it to approve only the withdrawal agreement. Ms. May's offer to resign, if approved, had done nothing.
If British Prime Minister Theresa May had been successful, the United Kingdom would have benefited from an extension of the preparation deadline until 22 May for the British authorities to adopt the legislation necessary for an orderly withdrawal from the EU (see EUROPE 12219/1).
As a result of this failure, the United Kingdom must now tell its European partners before 10 April whether it requires a longer extension of the exit deadline provided for in Article 50 of the Treaty to rethink its strategy, which is conditional on the holding of European elections on its territory. Otherwise, it will take responsibility for a no-deal Brexit potentially as early as 12 April.
Following the vote, Ms. May assured that she would continue to fight for an “orderly exit from the EU as required by the outcome of the British referendum” of June 2016. But she also admitted that her country should find an “alternative way forward” which was “almost certain” to involve holding European elections.
“I fear we've achieved the limits of this process in this House. This House has rejected no-deal, it has rejected no Brexit, on Wednesday it rejected all variations of the deal on the table and today it has rejected approving the withdrawal agreement alone and continuing a process on the future” between the EU and the United Kingdom, the British leader said.
Regretting the rejection of the agreement, the European Commission considered that the scenario of a no-deal Brexit was now “likely”, a risk the EU has been preparing for since late 2017. It stressed that it is up to the United Kingdom to find the “way forward”, which the European Council will then have to “consider”.
A new vote is always possible....
Several more events may take place in London between now and April 10. On Monday, April 1, the House of Commons will again be called upon to vote on new amendments with narrower options than those put to the vote this week, all of which were rejected (see EUROPE 12224/22).
British MPs could still vote on the option of a customs union with the EU or a second referendum, both of which were rejected on Wednesday. And this could accompany a comprehensive package, including the withdrawal agreement, to be resubmitted to British MPs, even if the customs union option is not supported by the government.
Faced with such an approach, the hardline Brexiters, who did not support Ms. May's deal, could then change their minds and support the first project, said a source.
A meaningful vote remains a possibility.
Between now and the European Summit, the Twenty-Seven will require Ms. May to have a clear plan before 10 April in order to have time to consider the British requests. According to Downing Street sources quoted by the British media, the aim is to inform the EU on 8 April.
From Dublin, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar asked the Twenty-Seven to consider a long extension of the Article 50 process should the United Kingdom “fundamentally reconsider its approach to Brexit and put back on the table options previously ruled out". Under these conditions, the Twenty-Seven will be able to give it “a generous and understanding response”.
In these circumstances, the United Kingdom will also have to organise European elections. This option has not yet been tested with British MPs. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)