‘Brexit means Brexit’ has been the UK government’s mantra since 2016. But by believing in it without defining it, the idea has taken on a life of its own.
Brexit now means all things to all people: Deal or no deal; Norway, Canada, Turkey or the WTO; a customs union, for now or forever; a second referendum or a general election.
The UK parliament’s vote against the draft withdrawal agreement this week was not a vote in favour of any of these options (see EUROPE 12172). As Michel Barnier put it in the European Parliament, it “does not represent a clear majority” for an “alternative”. “As long as we do not have a way out of this current British political impasse, which has the support of a parliamentary majority, we cannot advance,” Mr Barnier said (see EUROPE 12173).
The thing is, as Pankaj Mishra and Fintan O’Toole put it so eloquently this week, Brexit is not really about Britain’s exit from the EU but about the UK’s reckoning with itself. It’s not about immigration or trade, otherwise a Norway-style relationship with the EU would solve the problem. It’s definitely not about Northern Ireland, otherwise the government would not have woken up so late to the party.
In Westminster, the debate has transcended the idea of Brexit altogether. Theresa May is now discussing how to avoid ‘no deal’, rather than how to win backers for a new one. On parliament’s orders, she must come up with a way forward by Monday.
From the EU side, there is little room for manoeuvre. All EU countries are dead set against reopening the withdrawal agreement (especially the Irish border protocol), but the EU is open to amending the political declaration.
EU diplomats are actively discussing a short extension to the two-year negotiating period, which expires on 29 March and would need the approval of all 27 EU countries. German finance minister Peter Altmaier said this week that the UK should be given “the opportunity to clarify” its position. But, as French minister Nathalie Loiseau has said on several occasions, what is that extension for: a deal, a second referendum, a general election or nothing at all?
The Babadook is a storybook monster that becomes real and torments all who acknowledge its existence. And just like the film, the Brexit Babadook will haunt you forever unless you confront it. (Sarah Collins)