There is a pre-referendum feeling in the air as Theresa May tries to sell “her” Brexit deal in the UK and beyond. But at home and abroad, very few are buying it (see EUROPE 12146, 12145).
After trying (and largely failing) to placate Welsh farmers, Northern Irish unionists and Scottish fishermen this week, May is set to tell G20 leaders that the Brexit treaty is “a good deal” for the global economy. “The Brexit deal we have agreed sets a path for the UK to a brighter future,” she said ahead of the G20 meeting, where she will hold bilateral talks with the leaders of Argentina and Chile to promote post-Brexit trade links.
May has deployed several government ministers – including Brexiteers Michael Gove, Liam Fox and Andrea Leadsom – to drum up public in advance of an 11 December vote on the deal. But according to a recent Daily Mail/Survation poll, 43% of people would rather remain in the EU than leave without a deal (28%) or accept the current one (16%).
And the British parliamentary mathematics – the only numbers that matter for now – are as inscrutable as ever. All we really know is that that May needs 320 votes to get the deal over the line. The Daily Telegraph says 100 conservative MPs (out of 315) have now “spoken out” against the agreement, but they won’t necessarily translate into votes. Labour’s 257 MPs say the deal has failed their “six tests”, making a second referendum “inevitable” (at least according to shadow chancellor John McDonnell). If the vote fails, the government is threatening to recall Parliament over the holidays (though that, in itself, would require a Commons majority).
May does have options if she loses the vote: she can ask for more time to amend the deal (with a second Commons vote in January or the summer), accept a ‘no deal’ Brexit, or call a second referendum and/or general election. None of her options is particularly attractive.
First, the EU is not keen to reopen the deal. EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier said this week that “the time for negotiating is over” (see EUROPE 12149). Officials and diplomats continue to insist that it is the only deal in town, even if May loses the December vote. Besides, any changes would likely require concessions on the UK’s side to win over France and Spain (on fisheries and Gibraltar, respectively), as French president Emmanuel Macron underlined last Sunday.
Labour MPs are rallying behind an amendment to the withdrawal bill tabled by Hilary Benn, chair of the Brexit Select Committee, who has called on the Commons to reject the deal and “enable the House to offer its view on what should happen next”.
The UK could also request an extension to Article 50, which would give her an extra few months - probably until the summer, EU sources say - to sell the deal at home. That option has been repeatedly and recently discussed by EU diplomats.
More time will only work if May loses by a slim majority in December, Eurasia group analysts say. Should she face a major defeat in the Commons, her only options then will be ‘no deal’, a general election or second referendum - unless the “Norway Plus” plan, promoted by Conservative MP Nick Boles, garners more support.
EU officials view this option “positively”, sources said, but it is unlikely to pass muster with Brexiteers, as it would mean continued free movement and would not allow the UK to “take back control” of trade negotiations with third countries. (Sarah Collins)