In the run-up to the European elections of May 2019, the principal political families will appoint their front-runners, or Spitzenkandidaten, at the end of this year or early next, in an election innovation that made it possible to put personalities into the 2014 campaign, despite the misgivings of the heads of state or government of the EU.
The idea is a very simple one: the European parties name their candidate in advance and, should they prove triumphant in the European elections, this person is appointed to the Presidency of the European Commission. The aim is to get the European citizens more involved in the elections, for which turnout is traditionally low.
At the end of 2014, the former Luxembourg Prime Minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, who had been nominated in advance by the European People’s Party (EPP), became the leader of the European institution.
As the EPP won the elections, the European Council took inspiration from the results by appointing Juncker in June 2014 (see EUROPE 11110). After defending his working programme, Juncker received the blessing of the European Parliament in July to form the College of Commissioners (see EUROPE 11122).
Since the 'Santer' Commission of the late 1990s, the Presidents of the Commission have all previously held the position of Prime Minister in their country of origin.
The pro-European political groups of the European Parliament are deeply committed to this process. In a resolution dated February 2018, the European Parliament said that it was prepared to reject any President elect put forward by the European Council who was not the Spitzenkandidat of a political family in the European elections next May (see EUROPE 11956).
The European leaders are not fundamentally opposed to this process. However, eager to maintain their prerogatives and retain some room for manoeuvre following the announcement of the forthcoming election result, the Twenty-Seven – the United Kingdom will not be participating in the first post-Brexit elections – refuse to allow the Spitzenkandidat of the political family that won the European elections to be imposed on them at the head of the European Commission (see EUROPE 11968).
For the European elections of May 2019, the largest political families have decided on a timetable to appoint their Spitzenkandidaten. The negotiations are underway for the candidates. These can be summed up as follows.
EPP. In the Christian Democrat family, candidates with the support of their own party and of at least two other parties from two different member states may submit their applications between Thursday 6 and Wednesday 17 October. They will address the EPP Congress in Helsinki on Wednesday 7 November, ahead of a vote scheduled for the day after. The candidate with an absolute majority in the first round, or one of two finalists with the most votes in the first round, will be elected.
The EPP will not adopt a manifesto for the forthcoming elections in Helsinki. The idea is for the Spitzenkandidat to be involved in drawing up the manifesto, which will be finalised in February 2019.
In 2014, Juncker won out against two rivals, Michel Barnier of France and Valdis Dombrovskis of Latvia, currently a European Commissioner. The Luxembourg President Juncker made it up to his French colleague by appointing him EU negotiator-in-chief for Brexit (see article).
So far, no EPP members have officially thrown their hats into the ring. Several names are doing the rounds, including Barnier and Dombrovskis, and the former Prime Ministers of Finland, Alexander Stubb, and Ireland, Enda Kenny. There are reports in the German press that Chancellor Angela Merkel is backing the president of the EPP group at the EP, Manfred Weber.
PES. The Party of European Socialists (PES) is also getting itself into battle order. Its party members have until midnight on Thursday 18 October to appoint their champion, who must be supported by his or her home party and one quarter of the 33 parties and five organisations that make up the ES.
The eligible nominations will be announced on Friday 26 October. In the event of more than one candidate, an internal election will take place on Saturday 1 December. The appointment of the Social Democrat Spitzenkandidat will be confirmed at the PES Congress to be held in Lisbon on Friday 7 and Saturday 8 December.
In 2014, the outgoing President of the European Parliament, Germany’s Martin Schulz, was the obvious choice. This time round, nobody in particular is emerging from the pack. So far, only the current Commissioner for the Energy Union, Maros Sefcovic of Slovakia, has publicly expressed his interest. Other names have been suggested, such as Pierre Moscovici of France and Frans Timmermans of the Netherlands, both of whom are currently European Commissioners. Some have mooted the former Danish Prime Minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt. This summer, Belgium’s Paul Magnette announced officially that he would not stand, whilst Udo Bullmann, president of the S&D group at the European Parliament, is not interested.
ACRE. The Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists in Europe (ACRE) did not appoint a Spitzenkandidat in 2014. Its members oppose the idea that it should be the European citizens, rather than the heads of government, who appoint the President of the European Commission.
“This time, we have decided to get involved in order to be part of the debate and to push our own ideas forward”, a spokesperson has announced.
The procedure, which has been described as relatively informal, is expected to be concluded by the end of September or early October. Jan Zahradil of the Czech Republic has officially declared.
ALDE. Unlike the EPP, the Liberals will adopt their campaign manifesto before appointing their Spitzenkandidat. The manifesto will be adopted at the Congress of the ALDE party in Madrid between Thursday 8 and Saturday 10 November.
Those standing, who must be supported by three parties from three different member states, have until 1 February 2019 to put themselves forward, with the candidate to be chosen in the course of that month. The successful candidate must have more than half of the first-round votes, with a possible second round between the two candidates with the most votes in the first round.
In 2014, the former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt championed the Liberal colours. He may repeat the adventure this time. Other names have been suggested, such as the current Commissioner for Competition, Margrethe Vestager of Denmark, or the Luxembourg Prime Minister, Xavier Bettel, whose term in office will end in October.
One of the main challenges for the Liberal family will be to bring its ideas into line with those of the pro-European movement initiated by the French President Emmanuel Macron, who is not a member of any political party at either French or European level.
“Many within the ALDE are aware that if the Spitzenkandidat is not ‘Macron-compatible’, this will be a problem”, a Liberal parliamentary source told us.
European Greens. The uniqueness of the process launched by the European Green Party lies in its dual candidacy which will, as in 2014, allow two individuals to be appointed to defend the priorities of the ecologists.
With nobody having officially declared at this stage, the deadline for candidates to do so has been set for mid-September. The two Spitzenkandidaten will be appointed at the party’s Congress, to be held in Berlin from Friday 23 to Sunday 25 November.
In 2014, Germany’s Ska Keller and José Bové of France were chosen. The current co-chair of the Greens/EFA group at the EP seems to be prepared to stand again. Her partner could be another woman, with Belgium’s Petra De Sutter having been suggested by some.
Philippe Lamberts of Belgium, co-chair of the Greens/EFA, has told EUROPE that he is not seeking to be appointed Spitzenkandidat, but will stand as a candidate in Belgium.
European Left. The European Left Party will not hold a specific Congress ahead of the European elections of 2019. It may appoint its Spitzenkandidat at a general meeting of its members to be held in Brussels on Sunday 30 September.
In 2014, the leader of the Syriza movement, Alexis Tsipras of Greece, was the Spitzenkandidat for the European Left Party.
Nobody is officially standing as yet, with possibilities to include Germany’s Gregor Gysi.
The Eurosceptic and Europhobic ranks are apparently not yet ready to appoint a Spitzenkandidat. The Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe (ADDE), whose members include UKip of the UK and the French Debout la France party “no longer exists, has gone into liquidation”, said Mischaël Modrikamen of the Belgian People’s Party.
As for the Europe of Nations and Freedoms party, it seems unlikely that it will participate in a process it considers illegitimate. The Italian leader of Lega, Matteo Salvini, has nonetheless proposed a League of Leagues in Europe to promote pro-sovereigntist ideas in the forthcoming European elections. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)