If it is to have a chance to contribute to achieving the Paris Agreement targets, the EU’s climate policy must be based on a different approach, that of the EU’s carbon budget out of the global carbon budget still available, in order for average planetary warming to be contained at less than 2°C, according to a study published on Wednesday 28 February by the Greens/EFA group in the European Parliament.
The study, which was commissioned by the group and carried out by Öko-Institut e.V., Is entitled 'The Vision Scenario for the European Union. 2017 Update for the EU-28'.
It shows that the global carbon budget still available (in other words, the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted) is 890 gigatons of CO2. In order to comply with the 2°C target, the EU would have a carbon budget of 61.5 gigatons from 2015, which constitutes the basis of the scenario adopted by the Greens/EFA. This budget would be just 47.7 gigatons if the EU sets its sights on a target of 1.5°C, once the IPCC report on the implications of this target, anticipated for October 2018, is available.
On the basis of the target of 2°C, the study recommends radical decarbonisation in all sectors in order to achieve zero emissions by 2050 and thereby remain within the limits of the EU carbon budget. “We wanted an analysis of the figures we are using. When we say that the EU is not doing enough, we have a solid basis - with figures - to do so. This is the first-ever analysis based on the carbon budget approach, which shows us how many emissions we are still entitled to, depending on whether you are aiming for 1.5° or 2°, and to see what this means for the various sectors”, Bas Eickhout told a group of journalists.
In order to decarbonise its economy quickly, the EU should opt for a long-term approach, reducing its CO2 emissions by at least 55% up to 2030 and achieving zero emissions by 2050. This would require a guarantee that at least 40% of its final energy consumption is produced from renewable energies from 2030, to achieve 100% by 2050: improving its energy efficiency by at least 45% by 2030, to achieve the highest possible level of energy efficiency by 2050.
These figures are a long way from the objectives on the table in the inter-institutional negotiations that have begun on the ‘clean energy’ package.
“35% for renewables and energy efficiency is the absolute minimum. We have a window of opportunity to keep the increase in temperatures below 2°C”, said Luxembourg MEP Claude Turmes, who added: “Jean-Claude Juncker is against a zero emissions target by 2050, because he’s worried about clashing with Poland before COP24 in Katowice. We will leave that up to the next Commission. It is politically unacceptable. Commissioner Cañete is aware of the figures from this study, he knows that we will lose credibility if we do not move forward on this 2050 scenario”.
The two MEPs also called for 100% of spending under the future multiannual financial framework of the EU to be climate-proof and for 50% of funds to be earmarked for climate action.
During the structured dialogue with Maroš Šefčovič at the committee on the environment on Tuesday 27 February, the French Green MEP Michèle Rivasi urged the Vice-President with responsibility for Energy to make proposals on the basis of the European carbon budget. “It is very important for the medium and long-term strategy. It is the Commission’s job to evaluate the European carbon budget”.
The study is available online at: http://bit.ly/2CMGezv . (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)