The EU’s metaphorical doors, arms and hearts may be open to a UK change of mind, but Brexit carries on regardless.
If all politics is theatre, then this week’s European Parliament plenary was a Brexit rom com, with European Council president Donald Tusk (“our hearts are still open to you”) playing the part of the earnest romantic (see EUROPE 11940).
Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage seemed taken aback at the emotional outpouring (even Jean-Claude Juncker offered the UK an open “door”), even though he was the one who opened the second referendum can of worms in the first place. Mr Farage put it all down to an EU plot to thwart Brexit, accusing Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar of conspiring with former UK premier Tony Blair and ex-deputy prime minister Nick Clegg to deliver “the worst possible deal” for Britain.
Opinion polls show there is no majority in the UK in favour of a second vote. However, what has cheered the Remain side is that the same polls - including an online poll by Conservative Party donor Lord Ashcroft and a ComRes telephone survey for the Daily Mirror - found that most people (45% and 55%, respectively) would vote remain if a poll were held.
But all of this is in the realm of Brexit possibility.
In the realm of Brexit reality, EU officials are finalising detailed negotiating directives on a post-Brexit transition period, which they will insist should not go beyond December 2020 - even though some countries, including Ireland and several eastern European states, want the possibility of a longer time period. They will then have to take that document into negotiations with the UK, which the aim being to sign a transition deal at an EU summit in March.
Work is also beginning on putting the preliminary Brexit deal reached in December (on citizens’ rights, money and the Irish border) into legal language (see EUROPE 11927). Mr Varadkar said during the week that he doesn’t want to change a word of the December deal, which was only reached after excruciating four-way talks between Brussels, Dublin, London and Belfast and is an impressive exercise in creative wordplay (see EUROPE 11941).
But he also warned against any “backsliding” on the deal, particularly pledges made to maintain an open Irish border after Brexit. However, most of the detail will have to be worked out during talks on trade.
While talks on a future EU-UK trade deal won’t begin until a transition deal is sealed, EU officials are working on their draft guidelines for the talks, which they need to present to leaders in March. While there have been numerous calls from the EU side for the UK to come forward with its own ideas, diplomats say there is little hope of this happening. “We’re not holding our breath”, said one EU official.
One thing that is clear is that the UK’s choice will be between a Norway-style relationship, with extra obligations but full single market access, or a Canada-style free trade deal. As French president Emmanuel Macron said during a mini-summit in the UK this week: “If you want access to the single market, including financial services, be my guest. But it means that you need to contribute to the budget and take account of European court rulings”.
Meanwhile, contingency planning for the prospect of no deal is continuing, with European Commission officials trawling EU legislation for potential pitfalls, and EU countries doing their own research. The Dutch Ministries of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy this week published the results of a study revealing their non-tariff import and export costs will shoot up by €387-627 million a year (excluding customs duties and VAT) if the UK were to crash out of the bloc without a deal.
(Sarah Collins)