On Monday 22 January, the European foreign affairs ministers will discuss how the European Union can help the Palestinian Authority and help ensure the commitment of all relevant actors in order to advance the peace process – first in a meeting with the EU28 foreign ministers, then over lunch with President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas.
"During the meeting, the ministers will look at the means and outlook for a two-state solution. In the case of the Palestinians, one of the most visible things that the EU can do is continue the state building project", a European source said.
The EU, which indefatigably reiterates its desire for a two-state solution, is carrying out a re-examination of its commitment on the ground in order to better contribute to this two-state solution (see EUROPE 11858).
European unity is regularly undermined as regards the Middle East. In December, the European Council stated that "the EU's position on Jerusalem remains unchanged" – in other words, a two-state solution with Jerusalem as the capital of the state of Israel and the state of Palestine according to the 1967 demarcation (see EUROPE 11926). However, at a vote at the United Nations General Assembly on a resolution condemning the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel by the USA, six-member states abstained.
The Palestinians' appeasement and commitment to peace are also expected to be commended. "Despite the recent events, we expect them to maintain their commitment. There is nothing to gain by reducing their commitment", a European source warned, whose opinion is shared by several European diplomats. "We will recommend to Abbas that he not shut the door to dialogue with the USA. No one is happy, but it is important to keep the communication channels open", a European diplomat stated.
The Europeans are also expected to ask Abbas to pursue the creation of a viable Palestinian Authority and reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas, and not to incite hatred and division, according to a European diplomat.
Abbas has recently made several controversial statements. Notably, he said he considered that Israel had put an end to the Oslo Accords.
However, while the fine words will certainly be appreciated by Abbas, one European diplomatic source said that this would not be enough. "If we want to be serious, we need to be concrete", the source said. The negotiation of an association agreement could therefore be tabled. According to this diplomatic source, "no one said they were against" the launch of negotiations on such an agreement "to enhance cooperation between the Palestinian Authority and the EU".
The EU and Palestine have been linked by a provisional association agreement on trade and cooperation since 1997, and by an action plan since May 2013.
Other diplomats respond cautiously with regard to the announcement of an agreement at the Foreign Affairs Council. "I am not sure that it is for Monday. The talks are ongoing", one of them said. If such an agreement was negotiated, it could only enter into force once the Palestinian State is recognised by the Europeans, a European source also said.
There are currently only ten member states that officially recognise the state of Palestine. And while some countries would like the issue of recognition to be discussed between the EU28, this is not currently the case – and any decision remains under national responsibility.
The Europeans could also reiterate their strong support for the UNRWA at a time when US President Donald Trump has announced the suspension of part of his support for this UN agency. According to a European diplomat, the European External Action Service (EEAS) has already asked the member states to make advance payments to the UNRWA. But "we are not in a game of replacement", a European official nevertheless warned.
The ministers could also speak about their expectations ahead of the extraordinary session of the international donors group for Palestine, the ad hoc liaison committee (AHLC) which will take place in Brussels at the end of January (see EUROPE 11936).
Libya. The ministers will discuss the political, economic and security situation in Libya, especially the action of United Nations special representative Ghassam Salamé, with whom they will speak in video-conference.
On the political process in the country, the UN special envoy is working on the amendment of the Skhirat agreement, on the organisation of a national conference with all the parties concerned, and on the holding of elections in the country.
While, according to one European diplomatic source, the member states have a nuanced opinion of Salamé's work, all are aware that there is "no alternative and we must totally support what he is doing, otherwise there will be no political solution in Libya".
The ministers are also expected to discuss the issue of migration – the situation of migration in Libya, asylum requests and voluntary returns – following the trilateral meeting between the EU, UN and African Union on 14 December (see EUROPE 11926).
Iran. The Iranian issue is not expected to be the subject of any real discussion at ministerial level. But High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini is expected to inform the Council about the meeting between the European countries involved in the agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme – France, Germany and the UK – and Iran, which was held in Brussels on 11 January (see EUROPE 11937), at a time when the Americans have launched an ultimatum to the Europeans to amend the agreement (see EUROPE 11939).
"We have a busy time ahead of us", a European official stated. "The agreement is there. For the moment, we are not in the renegotiation of this agreement", a European source stated, while adding that the objective was to confer in order to see how to respond so that that the agreement could be kept and so that "we do not fall into a negative spiral".
Iraq. The ministers are expected to adopt conclusions on Iraq without discussion, following the European Commission's presentation of a new strategy for this country on 8 January (see EUROPE 11934), and ahead of the international conference on Iraq, co-chaired by the EU, which will take place in Kuwait in mid-February. These conclusions establish the EU's strategic objectives for Iraq.
The EU's integrated approach to external conflicts and crises is also due to be included in the conclusions.
North Korea. The ministers are expected to adopt autonomous EU sanctions on 17 North Koreans too, who are linked to the Iranian nuclear programme and who are facilitating the circumvention of United Nations sanctions (see EUROPE 11942).
Venezuela. By contrast, the sanctions against seven Venezuelan leaders are not expected to be adopted on Monday, due to a parliamentary reservation that might not be lifted in time (see EUROPE 11942).
Zimbabwe. The Council will adopt conclusion that will send an encouraging signal when it comes to the EU's future involvement with this African country, following the changes of its president (see EUROPE 11910). The Council is expected to hail this change of president and to express its expectations, but at this stage there will be no question of lifting sanctions.
"The EU has a cautious line. We will express our expectations, including the possible normalisation of relations. It is up to the new government to show in action how they want to develop their policy in the country", a senior official stated on Friday, saying "a step by step approach" has been taken by the EU thus far.
DRC. Among the urgent current events on the international agenda, the worrying situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) could also be addressed, at the initiative of Belgium.
ACP partnership/EU post-Cotonou. Mogherini and European Development Commissioner Neven Mimica will present to the ministers the negotiation directives that were proposed by the Commission in December for the future modalities of the partnership between the EU and the 79 ACP (Africa, Caribbean, Pacific) countries after 2020 and the expiry of the Cotonou agreement (see EUROPE 11924).
The exchange of views, the first on the basis of a negotiation mandate on the table, is expected to focus on the political objectives of the future agreement. The subject will also be addressed by the European development ministers during an informal meeting in mid-February – the objective being to reach a consensus on the European position at the latest in May, before starting the negotiations with the ACP countries.
EIB and Development. Before the formal session of the Council begins, the head of the European Investment Bank (EIB), Werner Hoyer, will be a guest at a working breakfast to discuss with ministers the bank's intention of creating a development service within the EIB (see EUROPE 11942). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant and Aminata Niang)