The British government has agreed to settle the financial dispute with the EU and pay an amount of between €45 and €55 billion, the British daily newspapers The Telegraph and The Financial Times reported on the evening of Tuesday 28 November.
More specifically, the UK is reported to be inclined to honour its financial commitments to the EU, having agreed to its calculation methodology, which will equate to a payment of €55 billion, according to The Telegraph. The Financial Times reports that it is even prepared to honour all of its financial commitments, which could be as much as €100 billion, but will realistically come in at about half of that sum.
The European Commission, which had particularly called upon London to commit to a calculation methodology (including London's participation in specific programmes still in place after the effective Brexit date) rather than to a specific amount, on Wednesday declined to confirm the reports, with the EU's negotiator, Michel Barnier, even describing them as “rumours” in an address in Berlin, and adding that “they were not yet there”. The Commission explained that the negotiations, which have seen some meetings held in Brussels this week, would continue on the three aspects of the divorce.
However, the Commissioner for Agriculture, Phil Hogan, was more forthcoming and told a press conference that the British offer was close to the EU's expectations. He welcomed the fact that the UK had presented proposals that came very close to the requirements of the 27-member states of the EU in order to conclude an agreement on the first part of the negotiations.
“Just as we have seen movement in the last 24 hours over the financial settlement, I believe that we will see movement in the coming days”, the Commissioner added, in response to a question about the Irish issue.
For the Commission, “it's three out of three” to be able to move to the next phase, a source said, referring to the three principal aspects of the first phase of the divorce, which are: citizens' rights, the financial settlement and Ireland. As far as the Commission is concerned, London must provide the necessary assurances on all of these aspects and there is no question of postponing the solution to the Irish issue until the second stage of the negotiations once an acceptable offer on the financial plank has been made.
On Monday 4 December, a lunch between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels may set this progress in stone. On 6 December, the College of Commissioners will then discuss the state of negotiations and it is then that Barnier may decide to prepare a recommendation for the European Council to move to the second phase of talks, if he considers that sufficient progress has been made.
On Wednesday 29 November, the representatives of the member states meeting in 'Article 50' format were to start a reflection on the conclusions of the Summit of 14 and 15 December, but according to one source, nothing will be put in writing at this stage. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)