Publishing its economic forecast on Monday 24 July, the international Monetary Fund (IMF) announced its growth forecasts for the Eurozone.
The Washington-based financial institution predicts that growth in the Eurozone in 2017 will stand at 1.9% of GDP, compared to 1.7% of GDP in its last economic forecasts, published on 18 April of this year (see EUROPE 11769). These forecasts are thus slightly higher than those of the European Commission unveiled on 11 May (see EUROPE 11786).
The IMF has also increased its growth forecasts for Germany and France compared to April, to 1.8% (+0.2 points) and 1.5% (+0.1 points) of GDP respectively for the year 2017. To justify its growth forecasts, the fund refers to “positive surprises”, noting that growth in the first quarter of the year was higher than anticipated and that economic benchmarks at the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017 show that domestic demand will be higher than previously expected. Eurozone growth in 2018, however, will be slightly down, to stand at 1.7% of GDP.
However, with negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union politically uncertain, the IMF has lowered its growth forecasts for the UK, to 1.7% of GDP compared to 2.0% of GDP in the growth forecasts published in April. This lower forecast can be explained, according to the institution, by lower economic activity than anticipated in the first quarter of this year. Growth is also expected to slow in 2018, standing at 1.5% of GDP, according to IMF forecasts. (Original version in French by Lucas Tripoteau)