Northern Ireland threatens to become another Brexit irritant for the UK, following a recent spat with Spain over Gibraltar and the spectre of Scottish independence (see EUROPE 11764).
EU leaders are set to acknowledge the prospect of a united Ireland during their first formal Brexit summit on 29 April, a political move intended to clarify that Northern Ireland could seamlessly re-join the EU in future.
The Irish government has in mind a precedent set by German reunification in 1990, when the former East Germany was able to automatically join the then-European Economic Community, without signing a separate accession treaty.
At the request of Irish prime minister Enda Kenny, EU 27 leaders will make a “factual and legal” statement in their meeting minutes - not their negotiating guidelines - which will lift language directly from the 1998 Good Friday peace agreement between the UK and Ireland.
That deal says that the UK is required to call a referendum on Irish unification if there is “likely” to be sufficient support for it in Northern Ireland.
“The question of Ireland, that is a special case, so we have to show a maximum of flexibility and imagination, and also acknowledge the legal framework which is there in Ireland, including the Good Friday Agreement,” said a senior EU official on 28 April.
However, the prospect of Irish reunification is still a long way off, with most opinion polls showing a majority in Northern Ireland in favour of remaining a part of the United Kingdom.
UK Brexit secretary David Davis confirmed recently that the UK would stand by its commitments under the Good Friday Agreement (also known as the Belfast agreement).
“Nothing changes as a consequence of our departure from the EU,” UK secretary of state for Northern Ireland, James Brokenshire, said in Brussels recently, adding that the conditions for calling a united Ireland referendum “are in no way met”.
‘Illusions’
The news comes as UK prime minister Theresa May accused EU leaders on 27 April of “lining up against” her ahead of Brexit talks.
Her statement was thought to be a response to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who told the German parliament that some in the UK “maintain illusions” about the kind of exit deal they can get.
Ukip MEP Nigel Farage, who famously accused the EU of acting like “gangsters” over Gibraltar, warned the bloc against imposing anything on Ireland via Brexit.
“If the Republic once again wants to become an independent and sovereign state it needs to leave the EU and take back the power to determine its own laws and destiny,” Mr Farage told EUROPE.
“Under the Good Friday agreement, it's for the peoples of Northern Ireland and the Republic in referenda to determine their status and nothing can be imposed by the EU.”
Unity
Meanwhile, the EU is determined to stay united ahead of the start of formal Brexit talks.
EU 27 leaders are expected on 29 April to sign off on negotiating guidelines that set out their red lines on citizens’ rights, the UK’s EU budget liabilities and border issues, including the situation in Northern Ireland.
Without “sufficient progress” on those issues, they say they will not move on to a second phase of talks on a future trade agreement with the UK. On Saturday, they may discuss first ideas on what “sufficient progress” actually means.
The draft guidelines call for “effective, enforceable, non-discriminatory and comprehensive” guarantees for the 4 million or so citizens affected by Brexit, including the right to permanent residency after five years and “smooth and simple administrative procedures”.
The 27 also agree on the need for a “single financial settlement” for the UK, including payments due to the EU budget, and to the European Investment Bank and the European Development Fund, which are outside the budget.
The draft guidelines, first tabled by European Council president Donald Tusk on 31 March and which have seen minor updates since (see EUROPE 11776), also include references to judicial cooperation and financial supervision post-Brexit.
At the summit, Mr Tusk and European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, will present their ideas on how to choose new seats for the bloc's banking and medicines agencies, which are currently based in London.
Several EU countries, including France, Spain, Germany, Luxembourg, Ireland and the Netherlands, are bidding to host these agencies post-Brexit, but a final decision won’t be made until later this year (see EUROPE 11770).
On 3 May, the European Commission will table negotiating directives that go into more detail on citizens, budget and border issues. They will be signed off by Europe ministers on 22 May, marking the formal start of Brexit talks. (Sarah Collins)