The 2016-2017 winter outlook from the European network of transmission system operators for electricity, ENTSO-E for electricity supply in the EU, published on Tuesday 29 November, shows that, in normal and severe conditions, Europe should be able to cover demand. However, the situation could be tight in France, possibly affecting neighbouring countries, in the event of severe weather. The reason is the country’s low level nuclear power generation in the last ten years, with 13 out of 58 nuclear plants expected to be unavailable in December 2016 and 9 unavailable at the beginning of January 2017 for safety tests and maintenance.
RTE, the French transmission system operator (TSO), and Elia, the Belgian TSO, are actively engaged with all neighbouring TSOs in the optimisation of the cross-border capacities to meet these specific market conditions. Both TSOs plan, if needed, to use generation reserves and contracts with industrial consumers who agree to reduce or interrupt their consumption at peak times, ENTSO-E states. TSOs will also cooperate through regional security coordinators monitoring how well supply is matching demand and addressing possible measures at regional level.
Furthermore, just like last year, the analysis by ENTSO-E and its equivalent for gas, ENTSOG, shows that possible interruption of gas transit through Ukraine would not affect Europe’s electricity security of supply.
The generating capacity outlook shows an 11 GW increase compared to 2015, largely due to the expansion of the renewable energy sources, mainly wind and solar, while conventional generation has remained stable. Gas and hydro principally have made up for decommissioned oil and coal capacity. (Original version in French by Emmanuel Hagry)