Frank discussions aiming to establish a clear diagnosis of the state of the EU and a clear political agenda based around priority issues such as migration, security, defence and the economy – to return hope to the citizens and stability to the EU27.
This is the task awaiting 27 European leaders in Bratislava this Wednesday 16 September, at their informal meeting to discuss the future of the European Union without the United Kingdom, the second such meeting since the one held at the end of June to take note of the shock victory of the Brexit camp in the British referendum.
The strategy to be adopted by the remaining 27 in the framework of the forthcoming negotiations with London once the British government has triggered Article 50 of the Treaty will be hanging over the leaders. However, this will not officially be an issue, the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, stated in his letter of invitation to the informal meeting, as various other diplomatic sources have confirmed. As regards the position of the EU27 on the British vote and the future negotiations, "everything was said on 29 June", a diplomatic source stressed on Wednesday 14 September.
At the end of June, the EU27 reiterated their commitment to move forward together, refused to enter into any negotiations until the UK has notified its intention of leaving the EU and ruled out any possibility for the country to pick and choose between the liberties underpinning the single market (see EUROPE 11583). Donald Tusk and the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, stressed that the freedom of movement of persons was not optional and that the United Kingdom would not have access to the single market unless it accepted this fundamental freedom.
The prospect of Brexit will nonetheless be talked about in Bratislava to an extent, as the presidents of the European Council and of the Commission will report back to their colleagues over lunch on their contacts with the British prime minister, Theresa May.
Redefining a pillar of shared priorities. Officially, the reflections of the EU27 will focus on ways for the EU to return stability to its members and once again to give hope to a Europe that has been hammered by multiple crises, the same diplomatic source explained. "It's not just another crisis for the Union. This could be the crisis of its very existence. This is why we need to give the European people a clear vision of what the future will be", the French president, François Hollande, warned in Paris on Thursday 15 September, following a preparatory meeting with the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel. The two leaders have laid down three main priorities: security and protection, preparing for the future and communicating values to young people.
On Friday, the first working session of the EU27 will be devoted to putting together a joint diagnosis of the EU's ailments, taking account of the fears voiced by the citizens, with a palpable rise in populist discourse and important election dates looming (referendums in Hungary and Italy in the autumn, general and/or presidential elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany in 2017). It will provide a platform for frank and honest discussions, which will not necessarily be warm, fuzzy and optimistic, the same diplomatic source continued, adding that the recent outburst by Luxembourg's foreign minister, Jean Asselborn, calling for Hungary to be kicked out of the EU for infringements of fundamental democratic values, may also crop up.
The priorities of the EU27 include the continued management of the influx of migrants to the EU. The migration crisis, Tusk explained, has in this sense been a tipping point in the loss of confidence of the Europeans. The EU27 must now show that this chaos will never happen again, he added, stressing that the EU should take back control over events. It can do this, amongst other things, by stepping up controls on the external borders of the Union and reforming the Dublin asylum system. In the field of defence, the EU27 may identify a few areas in which they could potentially work together more, possibly taking inspiration from the Franco-German proposals (see EUROPE 11623). Working together at European level to guarantee the security of the citizens, following the terrorist attacks that have hit a number of countries, is another field in which consensus is expected to emerge in Bratislava. On economic questions, continuing and stepping up the European investment plan, as Juncker proposed in his state of the Union speech, are expected to go down well (see EUROPE 11624). Lastly, speeding up the ratification of the Paris Agreement by the EU and its member states will also be discussed (see EUROPE 11624).
Now is not the time for institutional upheaval. The EU27 will also spend time on the working methods and issues of the EU, in a session that will also deal with communication about the EU. However, no major announcements are expected and certainly none of an institutional nature.
Tusk made this entirely clear in his invitation letter. "Giving new powers to European institutions is not the desired recipe", and nor is Treaty change, he said, on the basis of his discussions with the European leaders. The European Council president hoped that the question of eurozone governance would be part of the discussions getting underway, but France and Germany, the two largest economies of the eurozone, would reportedly prefer to postpone the dossier until after their respective forthcoming elections.
According to a source from one of the founding countries of the EU, this informal summit will be a success simply if the participants manage to avoid ideological debates pitting member states against the European institutions, or the countries of the North against the countries of the South. But "if any solutions are proposed, it won't be in Bratislava; we shouldn't overestimate expectations", the source added, going on to say that a superficial agreement or complete disagreement would spell failure.
According to Charles de Marcilly, head of the Brussels office of the Robert Schuman Foundation, the EU27 are arriving in Bratislava in dribs and drabs. Over the last few weeks, various groups of countries have taken antagonistic stances, in response to both geographical and ideological reasoning. However, this somewhat shambolic impression can also be explained, he said, by the unprecedented nature of the situation in which the EU27 find themselves and the very short space of time since the British referendum (see EUROPE 11580).
Poland and Hungary have clearly announced that they would be in favour of returning competences to the national sphere. The Polish secretary of state for European affairs, Konrad Szymanski, who believes that treaty reform should not be a taboo subject, said that institutional discussions should ultimately give the national governments more control over the political agenda.
Dates for 2017 already in the diary. The informal meeting in Bratislava is the starting point of the process. The EU27 have already agreed to commit to a long-term process and a further informal meeting has already been planned for early next year in Malta. In March 2017, celebrations will be held to mark the anniversary of the Treaty of 1957, a stage which is seen as important for the reflection on the future of a Union of 27.
Over at the European Parliament, a number of European federalists from the Spinelli group have already expressed concern at the turn the Bratislava summit is taking. Elmar Brok (EPP) and Jo Leinen (S&D) from Germany expressed criticism of Tusk's letter on Thursday, warning against any reinforcement of inter-governmentalism and any repatriation of competences from Brussels to the national level. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic with Sophie Petitjean, Mathieu Bion and Jan Kordys)